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Rugby Union
Tier Two & Three Rugby
Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 898204" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>The simple solution would be to invalidate the entire 2018 season, and for qualifying just use the table as it stood after the 2017 season. How many match results from the 2018 season are actually uncontested? Only Russia vs Belgium and Germany vs Russia?</p><p></p><p>And those percentages are not calculated by any simple formula, it's from 10,000 simulations of the entire qualification process and RWC. I mean, each match is based on a formula with WR Rankings, but also each team has a random adjustment with a SD of 1.77, and home advantage, ties and bonus points all feature. It isn't based on past statistics like 538's election models, <span style="font-size: 10px">(other than WRR and roughly how often draws happen)</span>, but it means I calculate things the same way each time and with no subjective decisions affecting any one team.</p><p></p><p>I guess my main hope for that model was that nothing in reality would happen, that the model ever said was extremely unlikely or impossible. These political/legal judgements overturning historical results are really messing things up! <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite7" alt=":p" title="Stick Out Tongue :p" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":p" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 898204, member: 73940"] The simple solution would be to invalidate the entire 2018 season, and for qualifying just use the table as it stood after the 2017 season. How many match results from the 2018 season are actually uncontested? Only Russia vs Belgium and Germany vs Russia? And those percentages are not calculated by any simple formula, it's from 10,000 simulations of the entire qualification process and RWC. I mean, each match is based on a formula with WR Rankings, but also each team has a random adjustment with a SD of 1.77, and home advantage, ties and bonus points all feature. It isn't based on past statistics like 538's election models, [SIZE=2](other than WRR and roughly how often draws happen)[/SIZE], but it means I calculate things the same way each time and with no subjective decisions affecting any one team. I guess my main hope for that model was that nothing in reality would happen, that the model ever said was extremely unlikely or impossible. These political/legal judgements overturning historical results are really messing things up! :p [/QUOTE]
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Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
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