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Tier Two & Three Rugby
Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 893238" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Germany and Russia are officially eliminated, taking us down to 15 teams still chasing qualification, 16 already qualified and 59 eliminated. Russia was in the 2011 RWC - the only other former RWC participant who has already been eliminated is Ivory Coast (51) who were at the 1995 RWC.</p><p></p><p>Romania and Spain are now safe in the top 2 places in the ERC. Only Portugal stands in their way of the final 23.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">(6 points clear of Russia, who only have 1 game left that counts, and 13 points clear of Germany who have 2 games left)</span></p><p></p><p>The results last weekend which had significant influence on qualification chances were:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Canada vs Chile - Canada gained 1.28 RP, raising their chances in the Repechage Tournament from 12% to 18% at the expense of Spain (~2.5%), Samoa (~1.5%), Romania (~1.0%) and Hong Kong (~1.0%).<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Belgium vs Germany - The 1.22 RP Belgium gained off Germany here reduces the chance Spain will win the away game in Belgium by about 6%. The effects on Spain vs Germany and Romania vs Belgium are smaller because those games are less competitive, so Spain's chance of finishing top of the table and qualifying as Europe 1 also reduces by about 3%.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Romania vs Russia - There was a small risk Romania would lose this game and finish narrowly behind Spain in the table. That risk is now gone, so Romania's chance of recovering the Europe 1 spot increases a further ~2%.</li> </ul><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong><strong>--------------------</strong></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Chances of Qualifying</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 9px">+/- Changes from 2 weeks ago</span></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>to Pool A (2):</strong> Romania 60% <span style="font-size: 9px">+4</span>, Spain 78% <span style="font-size: 9px">-4</span>, Samoa 62% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Portugal 0.1% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">As Europe 1: Romania 26% <span style="font-size: 9px">+5</span>, Spain 74% -5</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">As Play-Off W: Samoa 62% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Romania 34%<span style="font-size: 9px"> -1</span>, Spain 4.0%<span style="font-size: 9px"> +1.0</span>, Portugal 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span></span></li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>to Pool B (2):</strong> Namibia 87% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, <strong>Romania 32%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">-5</span>, <strong>Samoa 32%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.5</span>, Canada 18% <span style="font-size: 9px">+6</span>, Kenya 12% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Spain 10.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.5</span>, Hong Kong 7.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span>, <span style="font-size: 12px">Uganda 1.0% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, </span>Portugal 1.0%<span style="font-size: 12px"> <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.2</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, </span>Morocco 0.9% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%<span style="font-size: 12px"><span style="font-size: 12px">, Korea <0.1%</span><span style="font-size: 9px"> +<0.1</span></span>, Russia 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span></span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">As Africa 1: Namibia 86%, Kenya 11%, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>As Repechage:</strong> <span style="font-size: 10px">Romania 32% <span style="font-size: 9px">-<span style="font-size: 10px">5</span></span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Samoa 32% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.5</span>, </span></span><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>Canada 18% <span style="font-size: 9px">+6</span></strong>, </span>Spain 10.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.5</span>, <strong>Hong Kong 7.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span></strong>, Portugal 1.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.2</span>, Namibia 0.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Kenya 0.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, </span>Russia 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span>, Korea <0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">+<0.1</span></span></li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>to any pool (4):</strong> Samoa 94.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.5</span>, Romania 91.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span>, <strong>Spain 88% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3.0</span></strong>, Namibia 87% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Canada 18% <span style="font-size: 9px">+6</span>, Kenya 12% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Hong Kong 7.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span>, <span style="font-size: 12px">Portugal 1.2%</span> <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.2</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Uganda 1.0% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Morocco 0.9% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px"><span style="font-size: 12px">, </span>Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, <span style="font-size: 12px">Korea <0.1% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">+<0.1</span></span>, <span style="font-size: 12px"><strong>Russia 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span></strong></span></li> </ul><p>How things stand:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC <span style="font-size: 10px">(WRR 1-8, 10-12, 14)</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification <span style="font-size: 10px">(WRR 15, 9, 13)</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">26 - 8 more countries from Europe (2) and Africa (6) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the repechage process as a Plan B.<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">20 - Romania (17) and Spain (19) have the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (B1), and then the Repechage Tournament (B2).<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">26 - for the 6 African countries, Plan B is only the Repechage Tournament. - Namibia (23), Kenya (30), Uganda (35), Morocco (38), Tunisia (43), Zimbabwe (44)</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">31 - 5 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">27 - Portugal (24) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (Plan A1), or the Repechage Tournament (A2)</li> </ul><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">31 - 3 Asian countries and Tahiti are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament. - Hong Kong (22), Korea (32), Malaysia (46), Tahiti (85)</li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">59 countries eliminated <span style="font-size: 10px">(Including Russia (20) and WRR 25-29)</span></li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 893238, member: 73940"] Germany and Russia are officially eliminated, taking us down to 15 teams still chasing qualification, 16 already qualified and 59 eliminated. Russia was in the 2011 RWC - the only other former RWC participant who has already been eliminated is Ivory Coast (51) who were at the 1995 RWC. Romania and Spain are now safe in the top 2 places in the ERC. Only Portugal stands in their way of the final 23. [SIZE=2](6 points clear of Russia, who only have 1 game left that counts, and 13 points clear of Germany who have 2 games left)[/SIZE] The results last weekend which had significant influence on qualification chances were: [LIST] [*]Canada vs Chile - Canada gained 1.28 RP, raising their chances in the Repechage Tournament from 12% to 18% at the expense of Spain (~2.5%), Samoa (~1.5%), Romania (~1.0%) and Hong Kong (~1.0%). [*]Belgium vs Germany - The 1.22 RP Belgium gained off Germany here reduces the chance Spain will win the away game in Belgium by about 6%. The effects on Spain vs Germany and Romania vs Belgium are smaller because those games are less competitive, so Spain's chance of finishing top of the table and qualifying as Europe 1 also reduces by about 3%. [*]Romania vs Russia - There was a small risk Romania would lose this game and finish narrowly behind Spain in the table. That risk is now gone, so Romania's chance of recovering the Europe 1 spot increases a further ~2%. [/LIST] [SIZE=5][B][B]--------------------[/B][/B] [B]Chances of Qualifying[/B][/SIZE] [SIZE=1]+/- Changes from 2 weeks ago[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][B]to Pool A (2):[/B] Romania 60% [SIZE=1]+4[/SIZE], Spain 78% [SIZE=1]-4[/SIZE], Samoa 62% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Portugal 0.1% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]As Europe 1: Romania 26% [SIZE=1]+5[/SIZE], Spain 74% -5[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]As Play-Off W: Samoa 62% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Romania 34%[SIZE=1] -1[/SIZE], Spain 4.0%[SIZE=1] +1.0[/SIZE], Portugal 0.1% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][/SIZE] [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*][B]to Pool B (2):[/B] Namibia 87% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], [B]Romania 32%[/B] [SIZE=1]-5[/SIZE], [B]Samoa 32%[/B] [SIZE=1]-1.5[/SIZE], Canada 18% [SIZE=1]+6[/SIZE], Kenya 12% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Spain 10.0% [SIZE=1]+1.5[/SIZE], Hong Kong 7.0% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE], [SIZE=3]Uganda 1.0% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3], [/SIZE]Portugal 1.0%[SIZE=3] [SIZE=1]+0.2[/SIZE][SIZE=3], [/SIZE]Morocco 0.9% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%[SIZE=3][SIZE=3], Korea <0.1%[/SIZE][SIZE=1] +<0.1[/SIZE][/SIZE], Russia 0% [SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE][/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]As Africa 1: Namibia 86%, Kenya 11%, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2][B]As Repechage:[/B] [SIZE=2]Romania 32% [SIZE=1]-[SIZE=2]5[/SIZE][/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Samoa 32% [SIZE=1]-1.5[/SIZE], [/SIZE][/SIZE][SIZE=2][B]Canada 18% [SIZE=1]+6[/SIZE][/B], [/SIZE]Spain 10.0% [SIZE=1]+1.5[/SIZE], [B]Hong Kong 7.0% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE][/B], Portugal 1.0% [SIZE=1]+0.2[/SIZE], Namibia 0.2% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Kenya 0.2% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], [/SIZE]Russia 0% [SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE], Korea <0.1% [SIZE=1]+<0.1[/SIZE][/SIZE] [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*][B]to any pool (4):[/B] Samoa 94.0% [SIZE=1]-1.5[/SIZE], Romania 91.5% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE], [B]Spain 88% [SIZE=1]-3.0[/SIZE][/B], Namibia 87% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Canada 18% [SIZE=1]+6[/SIZE], Kenya 12% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Hong Kong 7.0% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE], [SIZE=3]Portugal 1.2%[/SIZE] [SIZE=1]+0.2[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Uganda 1.0% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Morocco 0.9% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3][SIZE=3], [/SIZE]Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, [SIZE=3]Korea <0.1% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]+<0.1[/SIZE][/SIZE], [SIZE=3][B]Russia 0% [SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE][/B][/SIZE] [/LIST] How things stand: [LIST] [*]17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including: [LIST] [*]12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC [SIZE=2](WRR 1-8, 10-12, 14)[/SIZE] [*]15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification [SIZE=2](WRR 15, 9, 13)[/SIZE] [*]16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament [*]17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament [/LIST] [*]18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2 [*]26 - 8 more countries from Europe (2) and Africa (6) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the repechage process as a Plan B. [LIST] [*]20 - Romania (17) and Spain (19) have the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (B1), and then the Repechage Tournament (B2). [*]26 - for the 6 African countries, Plan B is only the Repechage Tournament. - Namibia (23), Kenya (30), Uganda (35), Morocco (38), Tunisia (43), Zimbabwe (44) [/LIST] [*]31 - 5 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23. [LIST] [*]27 - Portugal (24) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (Plan A1), or the Repechage Tournament (A2) [/LIST] [LIST] [*]31 - 3 Asian countries and Tahiti are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament. - Hong Kong (22), Korea (32), Malaysia (46), Tahiti (85) [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*]59 countries eliminated [SIZE=2](Including Russia (20) and WRR 25-29)[/SIZE] [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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