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Tier Two & Three Rugby
Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 890129" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Well it came to pass. The qualification chances of Canada, Hong Kong etc. just got cut in half, Portugal and Russia's got cut by 3/4, Spain is up to <strong><em>91%</em></strong>, <span style="font-size: 10px">(we now have 4 strong favourites to take the 4 remaining qualifying spots)</span>, and Italy has a pretty good chance of getting Samoa or Romania in their pool.</p><p></p><p>Belgium is also officially eliminated, taking us down to 17 teams still chasing qualification, 16 already qualified and 57 eliminated.</p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong><strong>--------------------</strong></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Chances of Qualifying</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 9px">+/- Changes from last week</span></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>to Pool A (2):</strong> Romania 56% <span style="font-size: 9px">-34.5</span>, Samoa 62% <span style="font-size: 9px">-18</span>, Spain 82% <span style="font-size: 9px">+53</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Portugal 0.1% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Russia 0% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">As Europe 1: Romania 21% <span style="font-size: 9px">-60</span>, Spain 79% <span style="font-size: 9px">+60</span></span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">As Play-Off W: Samoa 62% <span style="font-size: 9px">-18</span>, Romania 35% <span style="font-size: 9px">+25</span>, Spain 3.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-6.5</span>, Portugal 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span>, Russia 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span></span></li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>to Pool B (2):</strong> Namibia 87% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, <strong>Romania 35%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">+26.5</span>, <strong>Samoa 34%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">+17</span>, Canada 12% <span style="font-size: 9px">-8</span>, Kenya 12% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Spain 8.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-24.5</span>, Hong Kong 8.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-8</span>, <span style="font-size: 12px">Uganda 1.0% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, </span>Portugal 0.8%<span style="font-size: 12px"> <span style="font-size: 9px">-2.7</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, </span>Morocco 0.9% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, Russia 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.3</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Korea 0% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2<span style="font-size: 12px">, Germany 0% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">-<0.1</span></span></span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">As Africa 1: Namibia 86%, Kenya 11%, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>As Repechage:</strong> <span style="font-size: 10px">Romania 35% <span style="font-size: 9px">+26.5</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Samoa 34% <span style="font-size: 9px">+17</span>, </span></span><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>Canada 12% <span style="font-size: 9px">-8</span></strong>, </span>Spain 8.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-24.5</span>, <strong>Hong Kong 8.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-8</span></strong>, Portugal 0.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2.7</span>, Namibia 0.3% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.5</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Kenya 0.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.8</span>, </span>Russia 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.3</span>, Korea 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span>, Germany 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-<0.1</span>, Uganda 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-<0.1</span></span></li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>to any pool (4):</strong> Samoa 95.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2.0</span>, Romania 92.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-6.5</span>, <strong>Spain 91.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+30</span></strong>, Namibia 87% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Canada 12% <span style="font-size: 9px">-8</span>, Kenya 12% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Hong Kong 8.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-8</span>, <span style="font-size: 12px">Portugal 1.0%</span> <span style="font-size: 9px">-2.7</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Uganda 1.0% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Morocco 0.9% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, <span style="font-size: 12px"><strong>Russia 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.4</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px">, </span>Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, <span style="font-size: 12px">Korea 0% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, </span>Germany 0% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">-<0.1</span></li> </ul><p>How things stand:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC <span style="font-size: 10px">(WRR 1-8, 10-12, 14)</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification <span style="font-size: 10px">(WRR 17, 9, 13)</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">16 - Samoa (15) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">28 - 10 more countries from Europe (4) and Africa (6) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the repechage process as a Plan B.<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">22 - the 4 European countries have the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (B1), and then the Repechage Tournament (B2). <span style="font-size: 10px">(WRR 16, 19, 20, 26)</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">28 - for the 6 African countries, Plan B is only the Repechage Tournament. - Namibia (23), Kenya (30), Uganda (35), Morocco (38), Tunisia (43), Zimbabwe (44)</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">33 - 5 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">29 - Portugal (24) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (Plan A1), or the Repechage Tournament (A2)</li> </ul><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">33 - 3 Asian countries and Tahiti are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament. - Hong Kong (22), Korea (32), Malaysia (46), Tahiti (85)</li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">57 countries eliminated</li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 890129, member: 73940"] Well it came to pass. The qualification chances of Canada, Hong Kong etc. just got cut in half, Portugal and Russia's got cut by 3/4, Spain is up to [B][I]91%[/I][/B], [SIZE=2](we now have 4 strong favourites to take the 4 remaining qualifying spots)[/SIZE], and Italy has a pretty good chance of getting Samoa or Romania in their pool. Belgium is also officially eliminated, taking us down to 17 teams still chasing qualification, 16 already qualified and 57 eliminated. [SIZE=5][B][B]--------------------[/B][/B] [B]Chances of Qualifying[/B][/SIZE] [SIZE=1]+/- Changes from last week[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][B]to Pool A (2):[/B] Romania 56% [SIZE=1]-34.5[/SIZE], Samoa 62% [SIZE=1]-18[/SIZE], Spain 82% [SIZE=1]+53[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Portugal 0.1% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Russia 0% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]As Europe 1: Romania 21% [SIZE=1]-60[/SIZE], Spain 79% [SIZE=1]+60[/SIZE][/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]As Play-Off W: Samoa 62% [SIZE=1]-18[/SIZE], Romania 35% [SIZE=1]+25[/SIZE], Spain 3.0% [SIZE=1]-6.5[/SIZE], Portugal 0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE], Russia 0% [SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE][/SIZE] [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*][B]to Pool B (2):[/B] Namibia 87% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], [B]Romania 35%[/B] [SIZE=1]+26.5[/SIZE], [B]Samoa 34%[/B] [SIZE=1]+17[/SIZE], Canada 12% [SIZE=1]-8[/SIZE], Kenya 12% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Spain 8.5% [SIZE=1]-24.5[/SIZE], Hong Kong 8.0% [SIZE=1]-8[/SIZE], [SIZE=3]Uganda 1.0% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3], [/SIZE]Portugal 0.8%[SIZE=3] [SIZE=1]-2.7[/SIZE][SIZE=3], [/SIZE]Morocco 0.9% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, Russia 0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.3[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Korea 0% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]-0.2[SIZE=3], Germany 0% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]-<0.1[/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]As Africa 1: Namibia 86%, Kenya 11%, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2][B]As Repechage:[/B] [SIZE=2]Romania 35% [SIZE=1]+26.5[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Samoa 34% [SIZE=1]+17[/SIZE], [/SIZE][/SIZE][SIZE=2][B]Canada 12% [SIZE=1]-8[/SIZE][/B], [/SIZE]Spain 8.5% [SIZE=1]-24.5[/SIZE], [B]Hong Kong 8.0% [SIZE=1]-8[/SIZE][/B], Portugal 0.8% [SIZE=1]-2.7[/SIZE], Namibia 0.3% [SIZE=1]-0.5[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Kenya 0.2% [SIZE=1]-0.8[/SIZE], [/SIZE]Russia 0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.3[/SIZE], Korea 0% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE], Germany 0% [SIZE=1]-<0.1[/SIZE], Uganda 0% [SIZE=1]-<0.1[/SIZE][/SIZE] [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*][B]to any pool (4):[/B] Samoa 95.5% [SIZE=1]-2.0[/SIZE], Romania 92.5% [SIZE=1]-6.5[/SIZE], [B]Spain 91.0% [SIZE=1]+30[/SIZE][/B], Namibia 87% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Canada 12% [SIZE=1]-8[/SIZE], Kenya 12% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Hong Kong 8.0% [SIZE=1]-8[/SIZE], [SIZE=3]Portugal 1.0%[/SIZE] [SIZE=1]-2.7[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Uganda 1.0% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Morocco 0.9% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], [SIZE=3][B]Russia 0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.4[/SIZE][/B][SIZE=3], [/SIZE]Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, [SIZE=3]Korea 0% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE][SIZE=3], [/SIZE]Germany 0% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]-<0.1[/SIZE] [/LIST] How things stand: [LIST] [*]17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including: [LIST] [*]12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC [SIZE=2](WRR 1-8, 10-12, 14)[/SIZE] [*]15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification [SIZE=2](WRR 17, 9, 13)[/SIZE] [*]16 - Samoa (15) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament [*]17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament [/LIST] [*]18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2 [*]28 - 10 more countries from Europe (4) and Africa (6) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the repechage process as a Plan B. [LIST] [*]22 - the 4 European countries have the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (B1), and then the Repechage Tournament (B2). [SIZE=2](WRR 16, 19, 20, 26)[/SIZE] [*]28 - for the 6 African countries, Plan B is only the Repechage Tournament. - Namibia (23), Kenya (30), Uganda (35), Morocco (38), Tunisia (43), Zimbabwe (44) [/LIST] [*]33 - 5 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23. [LIST] [*]29 - Portugal (24) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (Plan A1), or the Repechage Tournament (A2) [/LIST] [LIST] [*]33 - 3 Asian countries and Tahiti are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament. - Hong Kong (22), Korea (32), Malaysia (46), Tahiti (85) [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*]57 countries eliminated [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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