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Tier Two & Three Rugby
Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 889304" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>That Russia vs Spain game last Saturday is a big result with implications for RWC 2019 qualification, and for Pool B.</p><p></p><p>Firstly, Belgium faces official elimination as early as next weekend, if Spain gets a losing BP vs Romania and Belgium doesn't get one vs Russia.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">(though in practice Belgium was already out of contention last 6NB)</span></p><p></p><p>Secondly, in practical terms Russia - who previously were the closest to being favourites for that 20th RWC place with a 37% chance - are now out of contention.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">(they still have a tiny 0.5% chance)</span></p><p></p><p>Thirdly, Spain is the major beneficiary of Russia's demise and emerge as the first (20th) <em>actual favourites</em> to qualify - with a 61% chance.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">(though not necessarily as the Repechage Tournament winner, as they may qualify before then)</span></p><p></p><p>and Finally, Romania faces a significantly increased threat to their top position in European qualifying, <span style="font-size: 10px">(down from 94.0% to 81% chance of finishing as Europe 1)</span>, which also means a significantly higher chance that either Romania or Samoa will win the Repechage Tournament and qualify to Pool B instead of Pool A.</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Counter-intuitively, this improves Romania and Samoa's chances of finishing 3rd or 4th in their Pool <span style="font-size: 10px">- as Italy/Namibia are weaker opponents than Japan and Samoa/Romania.</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">It improves Portugal's chances by half, as they have more hope of winning a play-off against a strong Spain than <span style="font-size: 10px">(as things stood last week)</span> an even stronger Russia. <span style="font-size: 10px">(Spain is still 1.19 RP below where Russia was, so not quite the same threat.)</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">More predictably, it harms <span style="font-size: 10px">(but only very slightly)</span> the other Repechage Tournament team's qualification chances - mainly Canada and Hong Kong - and also Italy's chance of finishing 3rd in pool. <span style="font-size: 10px">This effect would be larger, but it is mitigated by the reduced threat these teams face from Russia. (same as with Portugal)</span></li> </ul><p></p><p><strong>Spain vs Romania this weekend promises to be more significant!</strong> Especially if Spain wins. Canada and Hong Kong should be hoping for an Oaks win. <span style="font-size: 10px">(Romania is favoured 74%-26%)</span></p><p></p><p>Personally, I want Spain to win - I'd like to see Italy and Romania in the same pool again. Besides - having a lower ranked team in Pool A would be good for Japan!</p><p></p><p>[End of commentary. Everything past here is just stats.]</p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong><strong>--------------------</strong></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Chances of Qualifying</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 9px">+/- Changes from last week</span></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>to Pool A (2):</strong> Romania 90.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-6.0</span>, Samoa 80% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3</span>, Spain 29% <span style="font-size: 9px">+21</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Portugal 0.3% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Russia 0.1% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">-12</span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">As Europe 1: Romania 81% <span style="font-size: 9px">-13</span>, Spain 19% <span style="font-size: 9px">+15<span style="font-size: 10px">, Russia 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.8</span></span></span></span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">As Play-Off W: Samoa 80% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3</span>, Romania 10% <span style="font-size: 9px">+7.5</span>, Spain 9.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+6.0</span>, Portugal 0.3% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span>, Russia 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-11</span></span></li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>to Pool B (2):</strong> Namibia 87% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Spain 33% <span style="font-size: 9px">+16</span>, Canada 20% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span>, <strong>Samoa 17%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>, Hong Kong 16% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Kenya 12% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, <strong>Romania 8.5%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">+6.3</span>, Portugal 3.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.3</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Uganda 1.0% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Morocco 0.9% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Russia 0.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">-24</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Korea 0.2% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Germany <0.1% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Tunisia <0.1%</span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">As Africa 1: Namibia 86%, Kenya 11%, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>As Repechage:</strong> Spain 33% <span style="font-size: 9px">+16</span>, <strong>Canada 20% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span></strong>, Samoa 17% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>, <strong>Hong Kong 16% <span style="font-size: 9px">(-0.2</span>)</strong>, Romania 8.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+6.3</span>, Portugal 3.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.3</span>, Kenya 1.0%, Namibia 0.8%, Russia 0.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">-24</span>, Korea 0.2%, Germany <0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span>, Uganda <0.1%</span></li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>to any pool (4):</strong> Romania 99.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.2</span>, Samoa 97.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.5</span>, Namibia 87% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, <strong>Spain 61% <span style="font-size: 9px">+36</span></strong>, Canada 20% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span>, Hong Kong 16% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Kenya 12% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Portugal 3.7% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.3</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Uganda 1.0% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Morocco 0.9% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, <strong>Russia 0.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-36.5</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px">, Korea 0.2% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Germany <0.1% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, Tunisia <0.1%</span></li> </ul><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>--------------------</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Chances of Pool Placements</strong></span></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The only team still in qualifying with any chance of a <strong>Quarterfinal</strong> is Romania, with <strong>0.1%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>. <span style="font-size: 10px">(via Pool A, against New Zealand)</span></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Top 3 in Pool: <span style="font-size: 10px"><span style="font-size: 12px">(Japan 93.5% </span><span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span><span style="font-size: 12px">, <strong>Italy 86% </strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px">)</span></span>, Samoa 9.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.0</span>, Romania 7.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2.0</span>, Spain 3.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.6</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">[Other 1.6% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>]</span>, Russia 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-4.0</span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">in Pool A: Ireland 100%, Scotland 99.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.2</span>, Japan 93.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span>, Romania 4.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Samoa 3.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span></span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">in Pool B: New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 86% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span>, <strong>Samoa 6.0%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.0</span>, <strong>Romania 3.0%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">+2.2</span>, Spain 3.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.6</span>, Canada 0.6% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span>, Namibia 0.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span>, Hong Kong 0.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span>, Portugal 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span>, Russia 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-4.0</span></span></li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 12px">Top 4 in Pool (2+): <strong>Romania 61%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">+4</span>, <strong>Samoa 58%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span>, Spain 31% <span style="font-size: 9px">+17</span>, Namibia 24% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Canada 13%, Hong Kong 10%, Portugal 2.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.0</span>, Kenya 2.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.2</span>, Russia 0.3% <span style="font-size: 9px">-24<span style="font-size: 12px">, Other 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span></span></span></span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">in Pool A: Ireland 100%, Scotland 100%, Japan 99.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span>, Romania 53% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2</span>, Samoa 41% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Spain 6.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+5.1</span>, Portugal <0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span>, Russia 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3.5</span></span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">in Pool B: New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 99.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Spain 25% <span style="font-size: 9px">+13</span>, </span>Samoa 17% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span>, Romania 8.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+5.8</span>, Namibia 24% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Canada 13%, Hong Kong 10%, Portugal 2.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.0</span>, Kenya 2.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.2</span>, Russia 0.3% <span style="font-size: 9px">-21</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Germany <0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span></span>, Uganda <0.1%, Korea <0.1%, Morocco<span style="font-size: 9px"><span style="font-size: 10px"> <0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">+<0.1</span></span></span></span></li> </ul></li> </ul><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>--------------------</strong></span></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>For comparison, the chances for teams already qualified:</strong></span></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">France (C) --- QF: 42% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2</span>, Top 3: 85% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span>, --- Top 4: 98.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Japan (A) ---- QF: 26% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span>, Top 3: 93.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span>, Top 4: 99.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Fiji (D) -------- QF: 20% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Top 3: 79% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, - Top 4: 98.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Italy (B) ------ QF 0.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Top 3: 86% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span>, -- Top 4: 99.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Tonga (C) -- QF: 5.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span>, Top 3: 23% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span>, Top 4: 81% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Georgia (D) - QF: 2.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Top 3: 21% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span>, Top 4: 86% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.5</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">USA (C) ----- QF: 0.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>, Top 3: 2.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.2</span>, Top 4: 21% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Uruguay (D) ----------------- Top 3: 1.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.2</span>, Top 4: 15% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.5</span></li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 889304, member: 73940"] That Russia vs Spain game last Saturday is a big result with implications for RWC 2019 qualification, and for Pool B. Firstly, Belgium faces official elimination as early as next weekend, if Spain gets a losing BP vs Romania and Belgium doesn't get one vs Russia. [SIZE=2](though in practice Belgium was already out of contention last 6NB)[/SIZE] Secondly, in practical terms Russia - who previously were the closest to being favourites for that 20th RWC place with a 37% chance - are now out of contention. [SIZE=2](they still have a tiny 0.5% chance)[/SIZE] Thirdly, Spain is the major beneficiary of Russia's demise and emerge as the first (20th) [I]actual favourites[/I] to qualify - with a 61% chance. [SIZE=2](though not necessarily as the Repechage Tournament winner, as they may qualify before then)[/SIZE] and Finally, Romania faces a significantly increased threat to their top position in European qualifying, [SIZE=2](down from 94.0% to 81% chance of finishing as Europe 1)[/SIZE], which also means a significantly higher chance that either Romania or Samoa will win the Repechage Tournament and qualify to Pool B instead of Pool A. [LIST] [*]Counter-intuitively, this improves Romania and Samoa's chances of finishing 3rd or 4th in their Pool [SIZE=2]- as Italy/Namibia are weaker opponents than Japan and Samoa/Romania.[/SIZE] [*]It improves Portugal's chances by half, as they have more hope of winning a play-off against a strong Spain than [SIZE=2](as things stood last week)[/SIZE] an even stronger Russia. [SIZE=2](Spain is still 1.19 RP below where Russia was, so not quite the same threat.)[/SIZE] [*]More predictably, it harms [SIZE=2](but only very slightly)[/SIZE] the other Repechage Tournament team's qualification chances - mainly Canada and Hong Kong - and also Italy's chance of finishing 3rd in pool. [SIZE=2]This effect would be larger, but it is mitigated by the reduced threat these teams face from Russia. (same as with Portugal)[/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Spain vs Romania this weekend promises to be more significant![/B] Especially if Spain wins. Canada and Hong Kong should be hoping for an Oaks win. [SIZE=2](Romania is favoured 74%-26%)[/SIZE] Personally, I want Spain to win - I'd like to see Italy and Romania in the same pool again. Besides - having a lower ranked team in Pool A would be good for Japan! [End of commentary. Everything past here is just stats.] [SIZE=5][B][B]--------------------[/B][/B] [B]Chances of Qualifying[/B][/SIZE] [SIZE=1]+/- Changes from last week[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][B]to Pool A (2):[/B] Romania 90.5% [SIZE=1]-6.0[/SIZE], Samoa 80% [SIZE=1]-3[/SIZE], Spain 29% [SIZE=1]+21[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Portugal 0.3% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Russia 0.1% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]-12[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]As Europe 1: Romania 81% [SIZE=1]-13[/SIZE], Spain 19% [SIZE=1]+15[SIZE=2], Russia 0% [SIZE=1]-1.8[/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]As Play-Off W: Samoa 80% [SIZE=1]-3[/SIZE], Romania 10% [SIZE=1]+7.5[/SIZE], Spain 9.5% [SIZE=1]+6.0[/SIZE], Portugal 0.3% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE], Russia 0.1% [SIZE=1]-11[/SIZE][/SIZE] [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*][B]to Pool B (2):[/B] Namibia 87% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Spain 33% [SIZE=1]+16[/SIZE], Canada 20% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE], [B]Samoa 17%[/B] [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE], Hong Kong 16% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Kenya 12% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], [B]Romania 8.5%[/B] [SIZE=1]+6.3[/SIZE], Portugal 3.5% [SIZE=1]+1.3[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Uganda 1.0% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Morocco 0.9% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Russia 0.4% [SIZE=1]-24[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Korea 0.2% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Zimbabwe 0.1%, Germany <0.1% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Tunisia <0.1%[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]As Africa 1: Namibia 86%, Kenya 11%, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2][B]As Repechage:[/B] Spain 33% [SIZE=1]+16[/SIZE], [B]Canada 20% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE][/B], Samoa 17% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE], [B]Hong Kong 16% [SIZE=1](-0.2[/SIZE])[/B], Romania 8.5% [SIZE=1]+6.3[/SIZE], Portugal 3.5% [SIZE=1]+1.3[/SIZE], Kenya 1.0%, Namibia 0.8%, Russia 0.4% [SIZE=1]-24[/SIZE], Korea 0.2%, Germany <0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE], Uganda <0.1%[/SIZE] [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*][B]to any pool (4):[/B] Romania 99.0% [SIZE=1]+0.2[/SIZE], Samoa 97.5% [SIZE=1]-0.5[/SIZE], Namibia 87% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], [B]Spain 61% [SIZE=1]+36[/SIZE][/B], Canada 20% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE], Hong Kong 16% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Kenya 12% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Portugal 3.7% [SIZE=1]+1.3[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Uganda 1.0% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Morocco 0.9% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], [B]Russia 0.5% [SIZE=1]-36.5[/SIZE][/B][SIZE=3], Korea 0.2% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Zimbabwe 0.1%, Germany <0.1% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE][SIZE=3], Tunisia <0.1%[/SIZE] [/LIST] [SIZE=5][B]--------------------[/B] [B]Chances of Pool Placements[/B][/SIZE] [LIST] [*]The only team still in qualifying with any chance of a [B]Quarterfinal[/B] is Romania, with [B]0.1%[/B] [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]. [SIZE=2](via Pool A, against New Zealand)[/SIZE] [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Top 3 in Pool: [SIZE=2][SIZE=3](Japan 93.5% [/SIZE][SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE][SIZE=3], [B]Italy 86% [/B][/SIZE][B][SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE][/B][SIZE=3])[/SIZE][/SIZE], Samoa 9.0% [SIZE=1]+1.0[/SIZE], Romania 7.0% [SIZE=1]+2.0[/SIZE], Spain 3.0% [SIZE=1]+1.6[/SIZE], [SIZE=2][Other 1.6% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]][/SIZE], Russia 0% [SIZE=1]-4.0[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]in Pool A: Ireland 100%, Scotland 99.8% [SIZE=1]+0.2[/SIZE], Japan 93.5% [SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE], Romania 4.0% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Samoa 3.0% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE][/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]in Pool B: New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 86% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE], [B]Samoa 6.0%[/B] [SIZE=1]+1.0[/SIZE], [B]Romania 3.0%[/B] [SIZE=1]+2.2[/SIZE], Spain 3.0% [SIZE=1]+1.6[/SIZE], Canada 0.6% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE], Namibia 0.5% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE], Hong Kong 0.4% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE], Portugal 0.1% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE], Russia 0% [SIZE=1]-4.0[/SIZE][/SIZE] [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*][SIZE=3]Top 4 in Pool (2+): [B]Romania 61%[/B] [SIZE=1]+4[/SIZE], [B]Samoa 58%[/B] [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE], Spain 31% [SIZE=1]+17[/SIZE], Namibia 24% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Canada 13%, Hong Kong 10%, Portugal 2.2% [SIZE=1]+1.0[/SIZE], Kenya 2.0% [SIZE=1]+0.2[/SIZE], Russia 0.3% [SIZE=1]-24[SIZE=3], Other 0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]in Pool A: Ireland 100%, Scotland 100%, Japan 99.4% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE], Romania 53% [SIZE=1]-2[/SIZE], Samoa 41% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Spain 6.5% [SIZE=1]+5.1[/SIZE], Portugal <0.1% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE], Russia 0% [SIZE=1]-3.5[/SIZE][/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]in Pool B: New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 99.8% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Spain 25% [SIZE=1]+13[/SIZE], [/SIZE]Samoa 17% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE], Romania 8.0% [SIZE=1]+5.8[/SIZE], Namibia 24% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Canada 13%, Hong Kong 10%, Portugal 2.2% [SIZE=1]+1.0[/SIZE], Kenya 2.0% [SIZE=1]+0.2[/SIZE], Russia 0.3% [SIZE=1]-21[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Germany <0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE][/SIZE], Uganda <0.1%, Korea <0.1%, Morocco[SIZE=1][SIZE=2] <0.1% [SIZE=1]+<0.1[/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE] [/LIST] [/LIST] [SIZE=5][B][SIZE=5][B]--------------------[/B][/SIZE][/B] [B]For comparison, the chances for teams already qualified:[/B][/SIZE] [LIST] [*]France (C) --- QF: 42% [SIZE=1]-2[/SIZE], Top 3: 85% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE], --- Top 4: 98.8% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE] [*]Japan (A) ---- QF: 26% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE], Top 3: 93.5% [SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE], Top 4: 99.4% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] [*]Fiji (D) -------- QF: 20% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Top 3: 79% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], - Top 4: 98.8% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE] [*]Italy (B) ------ QF 0.8% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Top 3: 86% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE], -- Top 4: 99.8% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] [*]Tonga (C) -- QF: 5.5% [SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE], Top 3: 23% [SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE], Top 4: 81% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] [*]Georgia (D) - QF: 2.0% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Top 3: 21% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE], Top 4: 86% [SIZE=1]-1.5[/SIZE] [*]USA (C) ----- QF: 0.2% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE], Top 3: 2.0% [SIZE=1]+0.2[/SIZE], Top 4: 21% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] [*]Uruguay (D) ----------------- Top 3: 1.0% [SIZE=1]+0.2[/SIZE], Top 4: 15% [SIZE=1]+1.5[/SIZE] [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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