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Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 963801" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>I didn't have fancy charts back then, but when Romania had qualified, Russia had been eliminated, and then something happened in Spain and the lawyers got involved... That's alright though. Russia have been value.</p><p></p><p>When I <a href="https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rugby-world-cup-2019-predictions.39070/page-2#post-884007" target="_blank">first</a> made this model in February last year, New Zealand and England had it wrapped up. Wales had a Brighton Miracle-like 1.4% shot at the trophy and South Africa were at 2.0%. How things have changed since then...</p><p>[This diagram was actually made based on an earlier, more naive model, but it still more or less applies]</p><p></p><p></p><p><img src="https://www.therugbyforum.com/attachments/rwc-2019-tree-2018-01-05-png.5615/" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><p>[UPDATE] For a better comparison, I went back and made a Pie Tree of the original simulation using the current model:</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]7572[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>And then here is as it stood 19 months later, just before the start of the tournament:</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]7575[/ATTACH]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 963801, member: 73940"] I didn't have fancy charts back then, but when Romania had qualified, Russia had been eliminated, and then something happened in Spain and the lawyers got involved... That's alright though. Russia have been value. When I [URL='https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rugby-world-cup-2019-predictions.39070/page-2#post-884007']first[/URL] made this model in February last year, New Zealand and England had it wrapped up. Wales had a Brighton Miracle-like 1.4% shot at the trophy and South Africa were at 2.0%. How things have changed since then... [This diagram was actually made based on an earlier, more naive model, but it still more or less applies] [IMG]https://www.therugbyforum.com/attachments/rwc-2019-tree-2018-01-05-png.5615/[/IMG] [UPDATE] For a better comparison, I went back and made a Pie Tree of the original simulation using the current model: [ATTACH=full]7572[/ATTACH] And then here is as it stood 19 months later, just before the start of the tournament: [ATTACH=full]7575[/ATTACH] [/QUOTE]
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