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Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 922749" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Changes from this weekend's results.</p><p></p><p>New Zealand's grip on the RWC is loosest it's been in a long time - down to 53% favourites now.</p><p></p><p>The Pool of Death is becoming crazy - Every single team has at least a 7% chance of progressing, and only England is safe.</p><p></p><p>Qualification is now down to Canada vs Hong Kong, with Canada's chances at 93%.</p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Potential World Champions:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>New Zealand - 53% <u><strong><span style="font-size: 9px">-11</span></strong></u> Chance (and for runner-up 25% <span style="font-size: 9px">+5</span>)</p><p>Ireland - 30% <u><strong><span style="font-size: 9px">+8</span></strong></u> Chance (runner-up 29% <span style="font-size: 9px">-4</span>)</p><p>Wales - 8.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span> Chance (runner-up 17% <span style="font-size: 9px">-4</span>)</p><p>England - 4.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span> Chance (runner-up 9.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2.5</span>)</p><p>South Africa - 3.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.9</span> Chance (runner-up 11% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1</span>)</p><p>Australia - 1.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.7</span> Chance (runner-up 6.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.0</span>)</p><p>Scotland - 0.3% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.3</span> Chance (runner-up 2.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.3</span>)</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">And only a <0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance for anyone else to win (France), but a 1.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> chance the runner-up will be <span style="font-size: 10px">France (0.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.4</span>), </span>Argentina (0.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.4</span>), <span style="font-size: 10px">Japan (0.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span>) or </span>Fiji (<0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>).</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Chance of making the Semis:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>90.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">-3.0</span> - New Zealand</p><p>76% <span style="font-size: 10px">-2</span> - Wales</p><p>74% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span> - Ireland</p><p>58% <span style="font-size: 10px">-3</span> - England</p><p>45% <span style="font-size: 10px">+4</span> - Australia</p><p>28% <span style="font-size: 10px">+4</span> - South Africa</p><p>13% <span style="font-size: 10px">+4</span> - France</p><p><span style="font-size: 12px">6.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">-2.5</span> - Scotland</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px">4.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">-4.0</span> - Argentina</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px">2.2% <span style="font-size: 10px">-0.3</span> - Fiji</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"><span style="font-size: 12px">1.6% <span style="font-size: 10px">+0.6</span> - Other</span> (Japan 0.8% +0.4, Tonga 0.4% -0.1, USA 0.3% +0.2, Georgia 0.2% +0.1)</span></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Pool Results:</strong></span></span></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Pool A Chance to place in the top N Places:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Ireland 95% <strong><u><span style="font-size: 10px">+7</span></u></strong>, Scotland 4.5% <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong><u>-6.5</u></strong>, Japan 0.3% -0.3</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">Ireland 99.9% +0.4</span>, Scotland 69% <u><strong><span style="font-size: 10px">-7</span></strong></u>, Japan 31%<span style="font-size: 10px"> <u><strong>+7</strong></u>, Samoa <0.1%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">Ireland 100%, Scotland 99.7% -0.3</span>, Japan 96.5%<span style="font-size: 10px">, Samoa 3.5%, Russia 0.3%</span></li> </ol><p><strong>Pool B:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">New Zealand 86% <u><strong><span style="font-size: 10px">-8.5</span></strong></u>, South Africa 14% <strong><u><span style="font-size: 10px">+8.5</span></u></strong><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">New Zealand 100%, South Africa 99.0%<span style="font-size: 10px"> +2.5, Italy 1.0% <u><strong>-2.5</strong></u></span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 97.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">-1.9, Canada 2.5% <u><strong>+1.9</strong></u>, Namibia 0.2% +0.1<span style="font-size: 10px">, Hong Kong <0.1%</span></span></li> </ol><p><strong>Pool C:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">England 86% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, France 10% <span style="font-size: 10px">+3.5, Argentina 3.5% <u><strong>-3.0</strong></u></span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Tonga 0.4% NC, USA 0.3% +0.2</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">England 97.8% NC</span>, France 59% <u><strong><span style="font-size: 10px">+13</span></strong></u>, Argentina 28% <u><strong><span style="font-size: 10px">-15</span></strong></u>, Tonga 8.5%<span style="font-size: 10px"> -1.0</span>, USA 7.0%<span style="font-size: 10px"> <u><strong>+3.0</strong></u></span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">England 99.7% -0.1</span>, France 83% <span style="font-size: 10px">+5</span>, Argentina 64% <u><strong><span style="font-size: 10px">-13</span></strong></u>, Tonga 28% <span style="font-size: 10px">-1</span>, USA 25% <u><strong><span style="font-size: 10px">+9</span></strong></u></li> </ol><p><strong>Pool D:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Wales 70% <span style="font-size: 10px">-3</span>, Australia 29% <span style="font-size: 10px">+4</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Fiji 1.0% -0.2, Georgia <0.1%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">Wales 98.2% NC</span>, Australia 88% <span style="font-size: 10px">+2</span>, Fiji 12% <span style="font-size: 10px">-3</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Georgia 1.6% NC</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">Wales 100% +0.1, Australia 99.0% +0.2</span>, Fiji 74% <span style="font-size: 10px">-1</span>, Georgia 27% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1,</span> <span style="font-size: 10px">Uruguay 1.0% +0.2</span></li> </ol><p></p><p>Chance to knock NZ out:</p><p></p><p>In Pool - 0% <span style="font-size: 10px">(but 14% <u><strong>+8</strong></u> chance South Africa will beat New Zealand and both progress)</span></p><p>In Quarterfinal - Ireland 7.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">+3.0</span>, Scotland 1.8% <span style="font-size: 10px">-0.2, Japan 0.1%</span></p><p>In Semifinal - England 7.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1.0</span>, Wales 3.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1.0</span>, Australia 1.8% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1.2, France <0.1%</span></p><p>In Final - Ireland 19% <u><strong><span style="font-size: 10px">+4</span></strong></u>, Wales 3.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">-0.5</span>, South Africa 1.6% <span style="font-size: 10px">+0.8</span>,<span style="font-size: 10px"> England 0.6% +0.4, Australia 0.4% +0.3, Scotland <0.1%</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 922749, member: 73940"] Changes from this weekend's results. New Zealand's grip on the RWC is loosest it's been in a long time - down to 53% favourites now. The Pool of Death is becoming crazy - Every single team has at least a 7% chance of progressing, and only England is safe. Qualification is now down to Canada vs Hong Kong, with Canada's chances at 93%. [SIZE=5][B][/B] [B]Potential World Champions:[/B][/SIZE] New Zealand - 53% [U][B][SIZE=1]-11[/SIZE][/B][/U] Chance (and for runner-up 25% [SIZE=1]+5[/SIZE]) Ireland - 30% [U][B][SIZE=1]+8[/SIZE][/B][/U] Chance (runner-up 29% [SIZE=1]-4[/SIZE]) Wales - 8.0% [SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 17% [SIZE=1]-4[/SIZE]) England - 4.0% [SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 9.0% [SIZE=1]+2.5[/SIZE]) South Africa - 3.5% [SIZE=1]+1.9[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 11% [SIZE=1]+1[/SIZE]) Australia - 1.4% [SIZE=1]+0.7[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 6.0% [SIZE=1]+1.0[/SIZE]) Scotland - 0.3% [SIZE=1]-0.3[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 2.2% [SIZE=1]-1.3[/SIZE]) [SIZE=2] And only a <0.1% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance for anyone else to win (France), but a 1.2% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] chance the runner-up will be [SIZE=2]France (0.8% [SIZE=1]+0.4[/SIZE]), [/SIZE]Argentina (0.2% [SIZE=1]-0.4[/SIZE]), [SIZE=2]Japan (0.2% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE]) or [/SIZE]Fiji (<0.1% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]).[/SIZE] [SIZE=5] [B]Chance of making the Semis:[/B][/SIZE] 90.5% [SIZE=2]-3.0[/SIZE] - New Zealand 76% [SIZE=2]-2[/SIZE] - Wales 74% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE] - Ireland 58% [SIZE=2]-3[/SIZE] - England 45% [SIZE=2]+4[/SIZE] - Australia 28% [SIZE=2]+4[/SIZE] - South Africa 13% [SIZE=2]+4[/SIZE] - France [SIZE=3]6.5% [SIZE=2]-2.5[/SIZE] - Scotland[/SIZE] [SIZE=3]4.0% [SIZE=2]-4.0[/SIZE] - Argentina[/SIZE] [SIZE=3]2.2% [SIZE=2]-0.3[/SIZE] - Fiji [SIZE=3]1.6% [SIZE=2]+0.6[/SIZE] - Other[/SIZE] (Japan 0.8% +0.4, Tonga 0.4% -0.1, USA 0.3% +0.2, Georgia 0.2% +0.1)[/SIZE] [SIZE=2][SIZE=5][B]Pool Results:[/B][/SIZE][/SIZE] [B] Pool A Chance to place in the top N Places:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]Ireland 95% [B][U][SIZE=2]+7[/SIZE][/U][/B], Scotland 4.5% [SIZE=2][B][U]-6.5[/U][/B], Japan 0.3% -0.3[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Ireland 99.9% +0.4[/SIZE], Scotland 69% [U][B][SIZE=2]-7[/SIZE][/B][/U], Japan 31%[SIZE=2] [U][B]+7[/B][/U], Samoa <0.1%[U][B][/B][/U][/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Ireland 100%, Scotland 99.7% -0.3[/SIZE], Japan 96.5%[SIZE=2], Samoa 3.5%, Russia 0.3%[/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Pool B:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]New Zealand 86% [U][B][SIZE=2]-8.5[/SIZE][/B][/U], South Africa 14% [B][U][SIZE=2]+8.5[/SIZE][/U][/B] [*]New Zealand 100%, South Africa 99.0%[SIZE=2] +2.5, Italy 1.0% [U][B]-2.5[/B][/U][/SIZE] [*]New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 97.5% [SIZE=2]-1.9, Canada 2.5% [U][B]+1.9[/B][/U], Namibia 0.2% +0.1[SIZE=2], Hong Kong <0.1%[/SIZE][/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Pool C:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]England 86% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], France 10% [SIZE=2]+3.5, Argentina 3.5% [U][B]-3.0[/B][/U][/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Tonga 0.4% NC, USA 0.3% +0.2[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]England 97.8% NC[/SIZE], France 59% [U][B][SIZE=2]+13[/SIZE][/B][/U], Argentina 28% [U][B][SIZE=2]-15[/SIZE][/B][/U], Tonga 8.5%[SIZE=2] -1.0[/SIZE], USA 7.0%[SIZE=2] [U][B]+3.0[/B][/U][/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]England 99.7% -0.1[/SIZE], France 83% [SIZE=2]+5[/SIZE], Argentina 64% [U][B][SIZE=2]-13[/SIZE][/B][/U], Tonga 28% [SIZE=2]-1[/SIZE], USA 25% [U][B][SIZE=2]+9[/SIZE][/B][/U] [/LIST] [B]Pool D:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]Wales 70% [SIZE=2]-3[/SIZE], Australia 29% [SIZE=2]+4[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Fiji 1.0% -0.2, Georgia <0.1%[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Wales 98.2% NC[/SIZE], Australia 88% [SIZE=2]+2[/SIZE], Fiji 12% [SIZE=2]-3[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Georgia 1.6% NC[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Wales 100% +0.1, Australia 99.0% +0.2[/SIZE], Fiji 74% [SIZE=2]-1[/SIZE], Georgia 27% [SIZE=2]+1,[/SIZE] [SIZE=2]Uruguay 1.0% +0.2[/SIZE] [/LIST] Chance to knock NZ out: In Pool - 0% [SIZE=2](but 14% [U][B]+8[/B][/U] chance South Africa will beat New Zealand and both progress)[/SIZE] In Quarterfinal - Ireland 7.5% [SIZE=2]+3.0[/SIZE], Scotland 1.8% [SIZE=2]-0.2, Japan 0.1%[/SIZE] In Semifinal - England 7.0% [SIZE=2]+1.0[/SIZE], Wales 3.5% [SIZE=2]+1.0[/SIZE], Australia 1.8% [SIZE=2]+1.2, France <0.1%[/SIZE] In Final - Ireland 19% [U][B][SIZE=2]+4[/SIZE][/B][/U], Wales 3.5% [SIZE=2]-0.5[/SIZE], South Africa 1.6% [SIZE=2]+0.8[/SIZE],[SIZE=2] England 0.6% +0.4, Australia 0.4% +0.3, Scotland <0.1%[/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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