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Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 915512" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Potential World Champions:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>Ireland are establishing themselves as the main competitor to New Zealand. Wales makes more ground too. It's starting to look realistic we might see a new first time champion.</p><p></p><p>New Zealand - 56% <span style="font-size: 9px">-10</span> Chance (and for runner-up 22% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span>)</p><p>Ireland - 27% <span style="font-size: 9px">+5</span> Chance (runner-up 31% <span style="font-size: 9px">-4</span>)</p><p>Wales - 7.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2.0</span> Chance (runner-up 17% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1</span>)</p><p>England - 5.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2.5</span> Chance (runner-up 9.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3.5</span>)</p><p>South Africa - 1.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.8</span> Chance (runner-up 9.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span>)</p><p>Scotland - 1.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.6</span> Chance (runner-up 5.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.0</span>)</p><p>Australia - 1.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span> Chance (runner-up 5.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-5.0</span>)</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">And only a 0.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.2</span> Chance for anyone else to win (France <0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC<span style="font-size: 10px">, Argentina <0.1% </span>+0.1</span>), but a 2.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.4</span> chance the runner-up will be <span style="font-size: 10px">France (1.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span>), </span>Argentina (1.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.7</span>), Fiji (0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span>) or Japan (0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>).</span></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Pool Results:</strong></span></span></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Pool A Chance to place in the top N Places:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Ireland 87%, Scotland 13%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Japan 0.6%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">Ireland 99.4%</span>, Scotland 77%, Japan 23%<span style="font-size: 10px">, Samoa 0% -<0.1</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">Ireland 100%, Scotland >99.9% +0.2</span>, Japan 96.5%<span style="font-size: 10px"> +2.5, Samoa 3.5% -2.0, Russia 0.2% -0.4</span></li> </ol><p><strong>Pool B:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">New Zealand 93.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">-0.5</span>, South Africa 7.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">+0.5</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">New Zealand 100%, South Africa 97.0%<span style="font-size: 10px"> -1.8, Italy 3.0% +1.8</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 98.8%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Hong Kong 0.5%, Canada 0.4% -0.1, Namibia 0.3% +0.1</span></li> </ol><p><strong>Pool C:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">England 81% <span style="font-size: 10px">+2</span>, France 9.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">-6.5</span>, Argentina 9.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">+4.0</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Tonga 0.3% +0.1, USA 0% -<0.1</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">England 96.5%</span>, France 49% <span style="font-size: 10px">-16</span>, Argentina 46% <span style="font-size: 10px">+14</span>, Tonga 6.5%<span style="font-size: 10px"> +2.5, USA 1.6% -0.9</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">England 99.8%</span>, France 83% <span style="font-size: 10px">-7</span>, Argentina 83% <span style="font-size: 10px">+7</span>, Tonga 24% <span style="font-size: 10px">+5</span>, USA 9.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">-5.5</span></li> </ol><p><strong>Pool D:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Wales 70% <span style="font-size: 10px">+20</span>, Australia 28% <span style="font-size: 10px">-19</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Fiji 1.6% -1.4, Georgia 0.1%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">Wales 97.0% +4.5</span>, Australia 85% <span style="font-size: 10px">-6</span>, Fiji 15%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Georgia 2.5% +1.3</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">Wales 99.9% +0.3, Australia 98.2% -1.3</span>, Fiji 72% <span style="font-size: 10px">-5</span>, Georgia 29% <span style="font-size: 10px">+5</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Uruguay 0.6% +0.4</span></li> </ol><p></p><p>Chance to knock NZ out:</p><p></p><p>In Pool - 0% <span style="font-size: 10px">(but 7.0% chance South Africa will beat New Zealand and both progress)</span></p><p>In Quarterfinal - Ireland 6.0%, Scotland 4.0%</p><p>In Semifinal - England 8.0%, Wales 2.5%, Australia 1.0%,<span style="font-size: 10px"> Argentina <0.1%, France <0.1%, Fiji <0.1%</span></p><p>In Final - Ireland 17%, Wales 3.5%, South Africa 0.8%,<span style="font-size: 10px"> England 0.3%, Australia 0.3%, Scotland 0.2%</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 915512, member: 73940"] [SIZE=5][B]Potential World Champions:[/B][/SIZE] Ireland are establishing themselves as the main competitor to New Zealand. Wales makes more ground too. It's starting to look realistic we might see a new first time champion. New Zealand - 56% [SIZE=1]-10[/SIZE] Chance (and for runner-up 22% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE]) Ireland - 27% [SIZE=1]+5[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 31% [SIZE=1]-4[/SIZE]) Wales - 7.0% [SIZE=1]+2.0[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 17% [SIZE=1]+1[/SIZE]) England - 5.5% [SIZE=1]+2.5[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 9.0% [SIZE=1]+3.5[/SIZE]) South Africa - 1.8% [SIZE=1]+0.8[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 9.0% [SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE]) Scotland - 1.2% [SIZE=1]+0.6[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 5.0% [SIZE=1]+1.0[/SIZE]) Australia - 1.2% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 5.0% [SIZE=1]-5.0[/SIZE]) [SIZE=2] And only a 0.2% [SIZE=1]+0.2[/SIZE] Chance for anyone else to win (France <0.1% [SIZE=1]NC[SIZE=2], Argentina <0.1% [/SIZE]+0.1[/SIZE]), but a 2.2% [SIZE=1]+0.4[/SIZE] chance the runner-up will be [SIZE=2]France (1.0% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE]), [/SIZE]Argentina (1.0% [SIZE=1]+0.7[/SIZE]), Fiji (0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE]) or Japan (0.1% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]).[/SIZE] [SIZE=2][SIZE=5][B]Pool Results:[/B][/SIZE][/SIZE] [B] Pool A Chance to place in the top N Places:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]Ireland 87%, Scotland 13%, [SIZE=2]Japan 0.6%[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Ireland 99.4%[/SIZE], Scotland 77%, Japan 23%[SIZE=2], Samoa 0% -<0.1[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Ireland 100%, Scotland >99.9% +0.2[/SIZE], Japan 96.5%[SIZE=2] +2.5, Samoa 3.5% -2.0, Russia 0.2% -0.4[/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Pool B:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]New Zealand 93.0% [SIZE=2]-0.5[/SIZE], South Africa 7.0% [SIZE=2]+0.5[/SIZE] [*]New Zealand 100%, South Africa 97.0%[SIZE=2] -1.8, Italy 3.0% +1.8[/SIZE] [*]New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 98.8%, [SIZE=2]Hong Kong 0.5%, Canada 0.4% -0.1, Namibia 0.3% +0.1[/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Pool C:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]England 81% [SIZE=2]+2[/SIZE], France 9.5% [SIZE=2]-6.5[/SIZE], Argentina 9.0% [SIZE=2]+4.0[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Tonga 0.3% +0.1, USA 0% -<0.1[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]England 96.5%[/SIZE], France 49% [SIZE=2]-16[/SIZE], Argentina 46% [SIZE=2]+14[/SIZE], Tonga 6.5%[SIZE=2] +2.5, USA 1.6% -0.9[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]England 99.8%[/SIZE], France 83% [SIZE=2]-7[/SIZE], Argentina 83% [SIZE=2]+7[/SIZE], Tonga 24% [SIZE=2]+5[/SIZE], USA 9.5% [SIZE=2]-5.5[/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Pool D:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]Wales 70% [SIZE=2]+20[/SIZE], Australia 28% [SIZE=2]-19[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Fiji 1.6% -1.4, Georgia 0.1%[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Wales 97.0% +4.5[/SIZE], Australia 85% [SIZE=2]-6[/SIZE], Fiji 15%, [SIZE=2]Georgia 2.5% +1.3[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Wales 99.9% +0.3, Australia 98.2% -1.3[/SIZE], Fiji 72% [SIZE=2]-5[/SIZE], Georgia 29% [SIZE=2]+5[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Uruguay 0.6% +0.4[/SIZE] [/LIST] Chance to knock NZ out: In Pool - 0% [SIZE=2](but 7.0% chance South Africa will beat New Zealand and both progress)[/SIZE] In Quarterfinal - Ireland 6.0%, Scotland 4.0% In Semifinal - England 8.0%, Wales 2.5%, Australia 1.0%,[SIZE=2] Argentina <0.1%, France <0.1%, Fiji <0.1%[/SIZE] In Final - Ireland 17%, Wales 3.5%, South Africa 0.8%,[SIZE=2] England 0.3%, Australia 0.3%, Scotland 0.2%[/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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