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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 910110" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model last week.</p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Grand Final Scenarios:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>Looking increasingly like a New Zealand vs Ireland final.</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Scn 1 (48% <span style="font-size: 9px">+11</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 32% <span style="font-size: 9px">+6</span>)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Scn 2 (8.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-5.5</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 8.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3.5</span>)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Scn 3 (15% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 14% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Scn 4 (7% <span style="font-size: 9px">-5.0</span> Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 3.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-5.0</span>)<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 13 (0.5% -1.1 Chance) - South Africa < New Zealand (Chance of South Africa win: 15% +1)</span></li> </ul></li> </ul><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Potential World Champions:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>Ireland are establishing themselves as a serious competitor to New Zealand.</p><p></p><p>New Zealand - 66% <span style="font-size: 9px">-6</span> Chance (and for runner-up 19% <span style="font-size: 9px">+4</span>)</p><p>Ireland - 22% <span style="font-size: 9px">+8</span> Chance (runner-up 35% <span style="font-size: 9px">+6</span>)</p><p>Wales - 5.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance (runner-up 16% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>England - 3.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.4</span> Chance (runner-up 5.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.0</span>)</p><p>Australia - 2.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2.3</span> Chance (runner-up 10% <span style="font-size: 9px">-6</span>)</p><p>South Africa - 1.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.5</span> Chance (runner-up 8.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-5.5</span>)</p><p>Scotland - 0.6% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.3</span> Chance (runner-up 4.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.5</span>)</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">And only a 0.1% Chance for anyone else to win (France 0.1%), but a 1.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.4</span> chance the runner-up will be <span style="font-size: 10px">France (1.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>), </span>Argentina (0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span>), Fiji (0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span>) or Japan (0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>).</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 910110, member: 73940"] Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model last week. [SIZE=5] [B]Grand Final Scenarios:[/B][/SIZE] Looking increasingly like a New Zealand vs Ireland final. [LIST] [*]Scn 1 (48% [SIZE=1]+11[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 32% [SIZE=1]+6[/SIZE]) [*]Scn 2 (8.5% [SIZE=1]-5.5[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 8.5% [SIZE=1]-3.5[/SIZE]) [*]Scn 3 (15% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 14% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) [*]Scn 4 (7% [SIZE=1]-5.0[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 3.5% [SIZE=1]-5.0[/SIZE]) [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 13 (0.5% -1.1 Chance) - South Africa < New Zealand (Chance of South Africa win: 15% +1)[/SIZE] [/LIST] [/LIST] [SIZE=5][B]Potential World Champions:[/B][/SIZE] Ireland are establishing themselves as a serious competitor to New Zealand. New Zealand - 66% [SIZE=1]-6[/SIZE] Chance (and for runner-up 19% [SIZE=1]+4[/SIZE]) Ireland - 22% [SIZE=1]+8[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 35% [SIZE=1]+6[/SIZE]) Wales - 5.0% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 16% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) England - 3.0% [SIZE=1]+1.4[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 5.5% [SIZE=1]+1.0[/SIZE]) Australia - 2.2% [SIZE=1]-2.3[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 10% [SIZE=1]-6[/SIZE]) South Africa - 1.0% [SIZE=1]-1.5[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 8.5% [SIZE=1]-5.5[/SIZE]) Scotland - 0.6% [SIZE=1]+0.3[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 4.0% [SIZE=1]+1.5[/SIZE]) [SIZE=2] And only a 0.1% Chance for anyone else to win (France 0.1%), but a 1.4% [SIZE=1]-0.4[/SIZE] chance the runner-up will be [SIZE=2]France (1.2% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]), [/SIZE]Argentina (0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE]), Fiji (0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE]) or Japan (0.1% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]).[/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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