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Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 908654" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model last week.</p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Grand Final Scenarios:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>Most likely a New Zealand vs Ireland final, but New Zealand's opponent could also be Wales, Australia or South Africa. <span style="font-size: 10px">(81% chance it will be NZ vs one of those four)</span></p><p></p><p>A 20% chance Wales and Australia will meet again in the bronze final, and a 2.5% chance they meet in the final.</p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Scn 1 (37% <span style="font-size: 9px">+8</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 26% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Scn 2 (14% <span style="font-size: 9px">-7</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 12% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3</span>)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Scn 3 (15% <span style="font-size: 9px">+4.0</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 14% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span>)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Scn 4 (12% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1</span> Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 8.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3.5</span>)<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 13 (1.6% +0.8 Chance) - South Africa < New Zealand (Chance of South Africa win: 14% -3)<br /> </span></li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 5 (1.6% -2.9 Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 3.5% -3.5)</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 6 (2.0% -0.2 Chance) - New Zealand > England (Chance of Upset: 4.5% -1.5)</span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 14 (0.6% NC Chance) - England < New Zealand (Chance of England win: 17% -5)</span></li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 7 (1.4% -0.2 Chance) - England < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 68% +11)</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 8 (0.5% -0.9 Chance) - England < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 61% +7)</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 9 (1.2% -0.2 Chance) - Australia = Wales (Chance of Wales win: 50% +11)</span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 10 (1.2% -0.2 Chance) - Wales > Australia (Chance of Wales win: 63% +14)</span></li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 11 (1.2% +0.2 Chance) - Australia < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 66% +6)</span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 12 (0.3% -0.7 Chance) - Ireland < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 37% -14)</span></li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 15 (1.2% Chance) - Wales > Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 61%)</span><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 17 (0.4% Chance) - Ireland > Wales (Chance of Upset: 31%)</span></li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 10px">Scn 16 (1.0% Chance) - New Zealand > France (Chance of Upset: 0%)</span></li> </ul><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Potential World Champions:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>Ireland are establishing themselves as the main competitor to New Zealand. Wales makes more ground too. It's starting to look realistic we might see a new first time champion.</p><p></p><p>New Zealand - 72% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance (and for runner-up 15% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>)</p><p>Ireland - 14% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span> Chance (runner-up 29% <span style="font-size: 9px">+4</span>)</p><p>Wales - 5.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.0</span> Chance (runner-up 16% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span>)</p><p>Australia - 4.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3.0</span> Chance (runner-up 16% <span style="font-size: 9px">-6</span>)</p><p>South Africa - 2.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.7</span> Chance (runner-up 14% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1</span>)</p><p>England - 1.6% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.4</span> Chance (runner-up 4.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span>)</p><p>Scotland - 0.3% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.9</span> Chance (runner-up 2.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-4.0</span>)</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">And only a <0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span> Chance for anyone else to win (France <0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span>), but a 1.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span> chance the runner-up will be <span style="font-size: 10px">France (1.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.4</span>), </span>Argentina (0.3% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.3</span>), Fiji (0.3% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>) or Japan (0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span>).</span></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Pool Results:</strong></span></span></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Pool A Chance to place in the top N Places:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Ireland 87%, Scotland 13%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Japan 0.6%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">Ireland 99.4%</span>, Scotland 77%, Japan 23%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Samoa <0.1%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">Ireland 100%, Scotland 99.8%</span>, Japan 94.0%, Samoa 5.5%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Russia 0.6%</span></li> </ol><p><strong>Pool B:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">New Zealand 93.5%, South Africa 6.5%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">New Zealand 100%, South Africa 98.8%<span style="font-size: 10px">, Italy 1.2%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 98.8%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Hong Kong 0.5%, Canada 0.5%, Namibia 0.2%, Samoa <0.1%</span></li> </ol><p><strong>Pool C:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">England 79%, France 16%, Argentina 5.0%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Tonga 0.2%, USA <0.1%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">England 96.5%</span>, France 65%, Argentina 32%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Tonga 4.0%, USA 2.5%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">England 99.8%</span>, France 90.5%, Argentina 76%, Tonga 19%, USA 15%</li> </ol><p><strong>Pool D:</strong></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Wales 50%, Australia 47%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Fiji 3.0%, Georgia 0.1%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Wales 92.5%, Australia 91.5%, Fiji 15%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Georgia 1.2%</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="font-size: 10px">Wales 99.6%, Australia 99.5%</span>, Fiji 77%, Georgia 24%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Uruguay 0.2%</span></li> </ol></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 908654, member: 73940"] Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model last week. [SIZE=5] [B]Grand Final Scenarios:[/B][/SIZE] Most likely a New Zealand vs Ireland final, but New Zealand's opponent could also be Wales, Australia or South Africa. [SIZE=2](81% chance it will be NZ vs one of those four)[/SIZE] A 20% chance Wales and Australia will meet again in the bronze final, and a 2.5% chance they meet in the final. [LIST] [*]Scn 1 (37% [SIZE=1]+8[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 26% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE]) [*]Scn 2 (14% [SIZE=1]-7[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 12% [SIZE=1]-3[/SIZE]) [*]Scn 3 (15% [SIZE=1]+4.0[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 14% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE]) [*]Scn 4 (12% [SIZE=1]+1[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 8.5% [SIZE=1]+3.5[/SIZE]) [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 13 (1.6% +0.8 Chance) - South Africa < New Zealand (Chance of South Africa win: 14% -3) [/SIZE] [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 5 (1.6% -2.9 Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 3.5% -3.5)[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 6 (2.0% -0.2 Chance) - New Zealand > England (Chance of Upset: 4.5% -1.5)[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 14 (0.6% NC Chance) - England < New Zealand (Chance of England win: 17% -5)[/SIZE] [/LIST] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 7 (1.4% -0.2 Chance) - England < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 68% +11)[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 8 (0.5% -0.9 Chance) - England < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 61% +7)[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 9 (1.2% -0.2 Chance) - Australia = Wales (Chance of Wales win: 50% +11)[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 10 (1.2% -0.2 Chance) - Wales > Australia (Chance of Wales win: 63% +14)[/SIZE] [/LIST] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 11 (1.2% +0.2 Chance) - Australia < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 66% +6)[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 12 (0.3% -0.7 Chance) - Ireland < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 37% -14)[/SIZE] [/LIST] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 15 (1.2% Chance) - Wales > Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 61%)[/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 17 (0.4% Chance) - Ireland > Wales (Chance of Upset: 31%)[/SIZE] [/LIST] [*][SIZE=2]Scn 16 (1.0% Chance) - New Zealand > France (Chance of Upset: 0%)[/SIZE] [/LIST] [SIZE=5][B]Potential World Champions:[/B][/SIZE] Ireland are establishing themselves as the main competitor to New Zealand. Wales makes more ground too. It's starting to look realistic we might see a new first time champion. New Zealand - 72% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance (and for runner-up 15% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE]) Ireland - 14% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 29% [SIZE=1]+4[/SIZE]) Wales - 5.0% [SIZE=1]+1.0[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 16% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE]) Australia - 4.5% [SIZE=1]-3.0[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 16% [SIZE=1]-6[/SIZE]) South Africa - 2.5% [SIZE=1]+0.7[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 14% [SIZE=1]+1[/SIZE]) England - 1.6% [SIZE=1]-1.4[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 4.5% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE]) Scotland - 0.3% [SIZE=1]-0.9[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 2.5% [SIZE=1]-4.0[/SIZE]) [SIZE=2] And only a <0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE] Chance for anyone else to win (France <0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE]), but a 1.8% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE] chance the runner-up will be [SIZE=2]France (1.2% [SIZE=1]-0.4[/SIZE]), [/SIZE]Argentina (0.3% [SIZE=1]-0.3[/SIZE]), Fiji (0.3% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) or Japan (0.1% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE]).[/SIZE] [SIZE=2][SIZE=5][B]Pool Results:[/B][/SIZE][/SIZE] [B] Pool A Chance to place in the top N Places:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]Ireland 87%, Scotland 13%, [SIZE=2]Japan 0.6%[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Ireland 99.4%[/SIZE], Scotland 77%, Japan 23%, [SIZE=2]Samoa <0.1%[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Ireland 100%, Scotland 99.8%[/SIZE], Japan 94.0%, Samoa 5.5%, [SIZE=2]Russia 0.6%[/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Pool B:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]New Zealand 93.5%, South Africa 6.5% [*]New Zealand 100%, South Africa 98.8%[SIZE=2], Italy 1.2%[/SIZE] [*]New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 98.8%, [SIZE=2]Hong Kong 0.5%, Canada 0.5%, Namibia 0.2%, Samoa <0.1%[/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Pool C:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]England 79%, France 16%, Argentina 5.0%, [SIZE=2]Tonga 0.2%, USA <0.1%[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]England 96.5%[/SIZE], France 65%, Argentina 32%, [SIZE=2]Tonga 4.0%, USA 2.5%[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]England 99.8%[/SIZE], France 90.5%, Argentina 76%, Tonga 19%, USA 15% [/LIST] [B]Pool D:[/B] [LIST=1] [*]Wales 50%, Australia 47%, [SIZE=2]Fiji 3.0%, Georgia 0.1%[/SIZE] [*]Wales 92.5%, Australia 91.5%, Fiji 15%, [SIZE=2]Georgia 1.2%[/SIZE] [*][SIZE=2]Wales 99.6%, Australia 99.5%[/SIZE], Fiji 77%, Georgia 24%, [SIZE=2]Uruguay 0.2%[/SIZE] [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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