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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 906976" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model in March.</p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Grand Final Scenarios:</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">(Scenario Numbers have changed)</span></p><p></p><p>Scn 1 (29% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 24% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>)</p><p>Scn 2 (21% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 15% <span style="font-size: 9px">+4</span>)</p><p>Scn 3 (11% <span style="font-size: 9px">+5.0</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 11% <span style="font-size: 9px">+5.0</span>)</p><p>Scn 4 (11% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2</span> Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 5% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>Scn 5 (4.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 7.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span>)</p><p>Scn 6 (2.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.3</span> Chance) - New Zealand > England (Chance of Upset: 6.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-7.0</span>)</p><p>Scn 7 (1.6% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3.4</span> Chance) - England < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 57% <span style="font-size: 9px">+7</span>)</p><p>Scn 8 (1.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2.1</span> Chance) - England < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 54% <span style="font-size: 9px">+18</span>)</p><p>Scn 9 (1.4% <span style="font-size: 10px">NEW</span> Chance) - Australia > Wales (Chance of Upset: 39%)</p><p>Scn 10 (1.4% <span style="font-size: 10px">NEW</span> Chance) - Wales < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 51%)</p><p>Scn 11 (1.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">NEW</span> Chance) - Australia < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 60%)</p><p>Scn 12 (1.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">NEW</span> Chance) - Ireland < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 51%)</p><p></p><p>Scn 13 (0.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance) - South Africa < New Zealand (Chance of South Africa win: 17% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2</span>)</p><p>Scn 14 (0.6% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.6</span> Chance) - England < New Zealand (Chance of England win: 17% <span style="font-size: 9px">-5</span>)</p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Potential World Champions:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>New Zealand - 72% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span> Chance (and for runner-up 13% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>)</p><p>Ireland - 11% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance (runner-up 25% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span>)</p><p>Australia - 7.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2.5</span> Chance (runner-up 22% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>)</p><p>Wales - 4.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2.8</span> Chance (runner-up 13% <span style="font-size: 9px">+5.5</span>)</p><p>England - 3.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-6.5</span> Chance (runner-up 5.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3.0</span>)</p><p>South Africa - 1.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.4</span> Chance (runner-up 13% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2</span>)</p><p>Scotland - 1.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.2</span> Chance (runner-up 6.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.5</span>)</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">And only a 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance for anyone else to win (France 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>), but a 2.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.7</span> chance the runner-up will be Argentina (0.6% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.8</span>), France (1.6% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.9</span>), Fiji (0.3% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span>) or Japan (0.3% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>).</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 906976, member: 73940"] Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model in March. [SIZE=5] [B]Grand Final Scenarios:[/B][/SIZE] [SIZE=2](Scenario Numbers have changed)[/SIZE] Scn 1 (29% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 24% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE]) Scn 2 (21% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 15% [SIZE=1]+4[/SIZE]) Scn 3 (11% [SIZE=1]+5.0[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 11% [SIZE=1]+5.0[/SIZE]) Scn 4 (11% [SIZE=1]-2[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 5% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) Scn 5 (4.5% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 7.0% [SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE]) Scn 6 (2.2% [SIZE=1]-0.3[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > England (Chance of Upset: 6.0% [SIZE=1]-7.0[/SIZE]) Scn 7 (1.6% [SIZE=1]-3.4[/SIZE] Chance) - England < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 57% [SIZE=1]+7[/SIZE]) Scn 8 (1.4% [SIZE=1]-2.1[/SIZE] Chance) - England < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 54% [SIZE=1]+18[/SIZE]) Scn 9 (1.4% [SIZE=2]NEW[/SIZE] Chance) - Australia > Wales (Chance of Upset: 39%) Scn 10 (1.4% [SIZE=2]NEW[/SIZE] Chance) - Wales < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 51%) Scn 11 (1.0% [SIZE=2]NEW[/SIZE] Chance) - Australia < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 60%) Scn 12 (1.0% [SIZE=2]NEW[/SIZE] Chance) - Ireland < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 51%) Scn 13 (0.8% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance) - South Africa < New Zealand (Chance of South Africa win: 17% [SIZE=1]-2[/SIZE]) Scn 14 (0.6% [SIZE=1]-0.6[/SIZE] Chance) - England < New Zealand (Chance of England win: 17% [SIZE=1]-5[/SIZE]) [SIZE=5] [B]Potential World Champions:[/B][/SIZE] New Zealand - 72% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE] Chance (and for runner-up 13% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE]) Ireland - 11% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 25% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE]) Australia - 7.5% [SIZE=1]+2.5[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 22% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE]) Wales - 4.0% [SIZE=1]+2.8[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 13% [SIZE=1]+5.5[/SIZE]) England - 3.0% [SIZE=1]-6.5[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 5.5% [SIZE=1]-3.0[/SIZE]) South Africa - 1.8% [SIZE=1]-0.4[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 13% [SIZE=1]-2[/SIZE]) Scotland - 1.2% [SIZE=1]-0.2[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 6.5% [SIZE=1]-0.5[/SIZE]) [SIZE=2] And only a 0.1% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance for anyone else to win (France 0.1% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]), but a 2.8% [SIZE=1]-1.7[/SIZE] chance the runner-up will be Argentina (0.6% [SIZE=1]-0.8[/SIZE]), France (1.6% [SIZE=1]-0.9[/SIZE]), Fiji (0.3% [SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE]) or Japan (0.3% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]).[/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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