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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 887836" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Yeah, I agree. So earlier this year I made a more complex, 538-like model (i.e. based on 10,000 simulations). It is still based purely off of current WR Rankings, but also takes those rankings with a pinch of salt - i.e. there's a small chance any team might actually be at a level several points higher or lower than their current rankings suggest. (So basically the same thing, but more humble / open to big upsets)</p><p></p><p>This type of model makes it more easy to also factor in the qualifying process, so I did.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">(Chance of qualifying to Pool A: Romania 96.5%, Samoa 83%, Russia 12%, Spain 8.0%, Portugal 0.2%)</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">(Chance of qualifying to Pool B: Namibia 87%, Russia 24% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>, Canada 21% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1</span>, Spain 17% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>, Hong Kong 16% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span>, Samoa 15% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1</span>, Kenya 12%, Romania 2.2%, Portugal 2.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.4</span>, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Germany 0.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span>, Korea 0.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span>, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, Uruguay 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-11</span>)</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">(Chance of qualifying to Pool D: Uruguay 100% <span style="font-size: 9px">+21</span>, Canada 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-21</span>)</span></p><p></p><p>Anyway, for comparison, here is what the 538-like model currently predicts: <span style="font-size: 10px">(and +/- compared with the same model 2 weeks ago)</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Grand Final Scenarios:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>Scn 1 (17% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 10% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>Scn 2 (20% <span style="font-size: 9px">+4</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 17% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>)</p><p>Scn 3 (12% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 5% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>Scn 4 (9.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span> Chance) - England > Australia (Chance of Upset: 21% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>Scn 5 (9.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.0</span> Chance) - England > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 30% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span>)</p><p>Scn 6 (6.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.5</span> Chance) - England > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 15% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>Scn 7 (3.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3.0</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 6.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3.0</span>)</p><p>Scn 8 (7.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2.5</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 6.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2.5</span>)</p><p>Scn 9 (1.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.7</span> Chance) - England > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 12% <span style="font-size: 9px">-7</span>)</p><p>Scn 10 (3.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.3</span> Chance) - England > Wales (Chance of Upset: 16% <span style="font-size: 9px">+6.5</span>)</p><p>Scn 11 (2.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.3</span> Chance) - England vs New Zealand (Chance of England win: 42% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>)</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">Also for interest - (0.6% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span> Chance) - South Africa vs New Zealand (Chance of SA win: 20% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"> - The difference from Scn 3 is that South Africa was 1st in Pool and beat England, while New Zealand was 2nd in Pool.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Potential World Champions:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>New Zealand - 59% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1</span> Chance (and for runner-up 7.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span>)</p><p>England - 26% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span> Chance (runner-up 8.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>Ireland - 7.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.5</span> Chance (runner-up 24% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span>)</p><p>Australia - 4.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.5</span> Chance (runner-up 23% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2</span>)</p><p>South Africa - 2.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance (runner-up 17% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span>)</p><p>Wales - 1.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.8</span> Chance (runner-up 10% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3.5</span>)</p><p>Scotland - 0.6% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span> Chance (runner-up 5.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-4.0</span>)</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">And only a <0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance for anyone else to win, but a 4.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.5</span> chance the runner-up will be Argentina (2.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>), France (1.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.6</span>), Fiji (0.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span>) or Japan (0.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span>).</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 887836, member: 73940"] Yeah, I agree. So earlier this year I made a more complex, 538-like model (i.e. based on 10,000 simulations). It is still based purely off of current WR Rankings, but also takes those rankings with a pinch of salt - i.e. there's a small chance any team might actually be at a level several points higher or lower than their current rankings suggest. (So basically the same thing, but more humble / open to big upsets) This type of model makes it more easy to also factor in the qualifying process, so I did. [SIZE=2](Chance of qualifying to Pool A: Romania 96.5%, Samoa 83%, Russia 12%, Spain 8.0%, Portugal 0.2%) (Chance of qualifying to Pool B: Namibia 87%, Russia 24% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE], Canada 21% [SIZE=1]+1[/SIZE], Spain 17% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE], Hong Kong 16% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE], Samoa 15% [SIZE=1]+1[/SIZE], Kenya 12%, Romania 2.2%, Portugal 2.2% [SIZE=1]+0.4[/SIZE], Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Germany 0.2% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE], Korea 0.2% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE], Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, Uruguay 0% [SIZE=1]-11[/SIZE])[/SIZE] [SIZE=2](Chance of qualifying to Pool D: Uruguay 100% [SIZE=1]+21[/SIZE], Canada 0% [SIZE=1]-21[/SIZE])[/SIZE] Anyway, for comparison, here is what the 538-like model currently predicts: [SIZE=2](and +/- compared with the same model 2 weeks ago)[/SIZE] [SIZE=5] [B]Grand Final Scenarios:[/B][/SIZE] Scn 1 (17% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 10% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) Scn 2 (20% [SIZE=1]+4[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 17% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE]) Scn 3 (12% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 5% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) Scn 4 (9.0% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE] Chance) - England > Australia (Chance of Upset: 21% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) Scn 5 (9.5% [SIZE=1]+1.0[/SIZE] Chance) - England > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 30% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE]) Scn 6 (6.0% [SIZE=1]-0.5[/SIZE] Chance) - England > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 15% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) Scn 7 (3.5% [SIZE=1]-3.0[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 6.0% [SIZE=1]-3.0[/SIZE]) Scn 8 (7.0% [SIZE=1]+2.5[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 6.5% [SIZE=1]+2.5[/SIZE]) Scn 9 (1.8% [SIZE=1]-1.7[/SIZE] Chance) - England > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 12% [SIZE=1]-7[/SIZE]) Scn 10 (3.5% [SIZE=1]+1.3[/SIZE] Chance) - England > Wales (Chance of Upset: 16% [SIZE=1]+6.5[/SIZE]) Scn 11 (2.2% [SIZE=1]-0.3[/SIZE] Chance) - England vs New Zealand (Chance of England win: 42% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE]) [SIZE=2]Also for interest - (0.6% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE] Chance) - South Africa vs New Zealand (Chance of SA win: 20% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE])[/SIZE] [SIZE=2] - The difference from Scn 3 is that South Africa was 1st in Pool and beat England, while New Zealand was 2nd in Pool.[/SIZE] [SIZE=5] [B]Potential World Champions:[/B][/SIZE] New Zealand - 59% [SIZE=1]+1[/SIZE] Chance (and for runner-up 7.5% [SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE]) England - 26% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 8.0% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) Ireland - 7.5% [SIZE=1]+1.5[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 24% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE]) Australia - 4.5% [SIZE=1]-0.5[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 23% [SIZE=1]-2[/SIZE]) South Africa - 2.0% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 17% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE]) Wales - 1.4% [SIZE=1]+0.8[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 10% [SIZE=1]+3.5[/SIZE]) Scotland - 0.6% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 5.5% [SIZE=1]-4.0[/SIZE]) [SIZE=2] And only a <0.1% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance for anyone else to win, but a 4.5% [SIZE=1]-0.5[/SIZE] chance the runner-up will be Argentina (2.2% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]), France (1.4% [SIZE=1]-0.6[/SIZE]), Fiji (0.5% [SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE]) or Japan (0.5% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE]).[/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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