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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 887585" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Updating for rankings changes last week:</p><p></p><p>Wales and Scotland swap places. A weaker Scotland makes it slightly easier for Ireland and New Zealand, and a stronger Wales makes it slightly harder for Australia and England.</p><p></p><p>Ireland now has a better chance of making the Final than England. (But not of winning it)</p><p></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 18px">Grand Final Scenarios:</span></strong></p><p></p><p>Scn 1 (20% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Australia <span style="font-size: 12px">(Chance of Upset: 8% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</span></p><p>Scn 2 (23% <span style="font-size: 9px">+5</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland <span style="font-size: 12px">(Chance of Upset: 14% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>)</span></p><p>Scn 3 (14% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1</span> Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa <span style="font-size: 12px">(Chance of Upset: 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</span></p><p>Scn 4 (10% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2</span> Chance) - England > Australia <span style="font-size: 12px">(Chance of Upset: 23% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</span></p><p>Scn 5 (10% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span> Chance) - England* > Ireland <span style="font-size: 12px">(Chance of Upset: 30% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>)</span></p><p>Scn 6 (6% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span> Chance) - England > South Africa <span style="font-size: 12px">(Chance of Upset: 15% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</span></p><p>Scn 7 (2.6% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2.2</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland <span style="font-size: 12px">(Chance of Upset: 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.6</span>)</span></p><p>Scn 8 (7% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Wales <span style="font-size: 12px">(Chance of Upset: 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</span></p><p>Scn 9 (1.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.4</span> Chance) - England > Scotland <span style="font-size: 12px">(Chance of Upset: 9% <span style="font-size: 9px">-7</span>)</span></p><p>Scn 10 (2.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.3</span> Chance) - England > Wales <span style="font-size: 12px">(Chance of Upset: 13% <span style="font-size: 9px">+7</span>)</span></p><p>Scn 11 (1.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Argentina <span style="font-size: 12px">(Chance of Upset: 0% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</span></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px">Potential World Champions:</span></strong></span></p><p></p><p>New Zealand - 63% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span> Chance (and for runner-up 5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1</span>)</p><p>England - 24% <span style="font-size: 10px">-2</span> Chance (runner-up 7% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>Ireland - 7% <span style="font-size: 10px">+2</span> Chance (runner-up 27% <span style="font-size: 9px">+4</span>)</p><p>Australia - 4% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span> Chance (runner-up 27% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3</span>)</p><p>South Africa - 1.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance (runner-up 19% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span>)</p><p>Wales - 0.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.3</span> Chance (runner-up 9% <span style="font-size: 9px">+4</span>)</p><p><span style="font-size: 12px">Scotland - Only a 0.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.4</span> Chance of winning, but a 4% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3</span> chance of being runner-up</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px">And only a 0.01% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance for anyone else to win, but a 2.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.7</span> chance the runner-up will be Argentina, France, Fiji or Japan.</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 887585, member: 73940"] Updating for rankings changes last week: Wales and Scotland swap places. A weaker Scotland makes it slightly easier for Ireland and New Zealand, and a stronger Wales makes it slightly harder for Australia and England. Ireland now has a better chance of making the Final than England. (But not of winning it) [B][SIZE=5]Grand Final Scenarios:[/SIZE][/B] Scn 1 (20% [SIZE=1]-2[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Australia [SIZE=3](Chance of Upset: 8% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE])[/SIZE] Scn 2 (23% [SIZE=1]+5[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland [SIZE=3](Chance of Upset: 14% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE])[/SIZE] Scn 3 (14% [SIZE=1]+1[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa [SIZE=3](Chance of Upset: 0% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE])[/SIZE] Scn 4 (10% [SIZE=1]-2[/SIZE] Chance) - England > Australia [SIZE=3](Chance of Upset: 23% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE])[/SIZE] Scn 5 (10% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE] Chance) - England* > Ireland [SIZE=3](Chance of Upset: 30% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE])[/SIZE] Scn 6 (6% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE] Chance) - England > South Africa [SIZE=3](Chance of Upset: 15% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE])[/SIZE] Scn 7 (2.6% [SIZE=1]-2.2[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland [SIZE=3](Chance of Upset: 0% [SIZE=1]-0.6[/SIZE])[/SIZE] Scn 8 (7% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Wales [SIZE=3](Chance of Upset: 0% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE])[/SIZE] Scn 9 (1.4% [SIZE=1]-1.4[/SIZE] Chance) - England > Scotland [SIZE=3](Chance of Upset: 9% [SIZE=1]-7[/SIZE])[/SIZE] Scn 10 (2.8% [SIZE=1]+1.3[/SIZE] Chance) - England > Wales [SIZE=3](Chance of Upset: 13% [SIZE=1]+7[/SIZE])[/SIZE] Scn 11 (1.1% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Argentina [SIZE=3](Chance of Upset: 0% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE])[/SIZE] [SIZE=3][B][SIZE=5]Potential World Champions:[/SIZE][/B][/SIZE] New Zealand - 63% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE] Chance (and for runner-up 5% [SIZE=1]+1[/SIZE]) England - 24% [SIZE=2]-2[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 7% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) Ireland - 7% [SIZE=2]+2[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 27% [SIZE=1]+4[/SIZE]) Australia - 4% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 27% [SIZE=1]-3[/SIZE]) South Africa - 1.1% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 19% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE]) Wales - 0.5% [SIZE=1]+0.3[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 9% [SIZE=1]+4[/SIZE]) [SIZE=3]Scotland - Only a 0.2% [SIZE=1]-0.4[/SIZE] Chance of winning, but a 4% [SIZE=1]-3[/SIZE] chance of being runner-up[/SIZE] [SIZE=3]And only a 0.01% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance for anyone else to win, but a 2.5% [SIZE=1]-0.7[/SIZE] chance the runner-up will be Argentina, France, Fiji or Japan.[/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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