Mind the Gap (between Tiers)

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I thought a thread to discuss the gap between Tiers 1&2 and Tiers2&3 would be worthwhile. The definition of Tiers varies and broadly coincides with how many votes a union has on the World Council (0, 1, 2 or 3).

To try and lay things out simply (unless corrected!) I would propose:

Tier1: has access to 6 Nations or The Rugby Championship and has at least one professional club side.

Tier2: has access to 6N or TRC OR has at least one professional or semi-pro club side (hypothetical, but I would argue this would include Argentina if the Jaguares closed down).

Tier3: amateur

There is a lot of politics behind all this, which I won't get bogged down with here. I will flag up that of the Tier2s, the Pacific Islands, Japan, USA and Canada are all given preferential treatment by Tier1s and increased exposure to Tier1 fixtures regardless of their ranking.

The San Francisco Agreement was a huge step in improving potential movement between Tiers by opening up access to Tier1 fixtures to two further Tier2s nations based on world ranking (currently Georgia and Romania). This agreement is in place until 2032 so provides a long term foundation for Tier2s to improve their level and makes matches between Tier2s more spicey as they all fight for access to Tier1 fixtures.

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[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

2021 - Tier 2 to Tier 1 gap review

There is a lot of projects bubbling away that are unfortunately being hampered by the pandemic. If they can survive, then MLR, SLAR, RESC & Toyota Challenge all have potential to accelerate development of Tier2 and Tier3 nations.

The best way to gauge the gap between Tiers is to look at results of matches between Tiers. In the End of Year Tests (EOYT) I consider the following fixtures were one where a Tier2 had a greater than 5% chance of beating a Tier1 or a Tier2 with favoured status.

- 23/10 Japan vs Australia (Aus win)
- 6/11 Ireland vs Japan (Ire win)
- 6/11 Spain vs Fiji (Fiji win)
- 20/11 Scotland vs Japan (Sco win)
- 20/11 Romania vs Tonga (Rom win)
- 20/11 Italy vs Uruguay (Ita win)
- 20/11 Georgia vs Fiji (draw)
- Portugal vs Japan (Jap win)

All but one of the above resulted in the underdog failing to win, so it looks negative. However only Japan being thumped by Ireland and Spain losing badly to Fiji were uncompetitive. Romania defeated a strong Tonga selection essentially only using players from Steaua Bucharest (runners up in the Superliga).

Japan did decent against Australia and Scotland, but almost lost to Portugal. Uruguay kept the score very respectable against Italy. In summer, Romania hosted Argentina and almost defeated them. Georgia, look as competitive against RSA and France as Italy would be, possibly more so. I'd argue that for so many of the above fixtures to be competitive games is a positive sign.

2022 - Tier2s to Watch

Pacific Islands - change in eligibility rule could potentially massively raise their level. New teams in Super Rugby for Fiji (Drua) and Tonga/Samoa (Moana Pacifika) means they will be able to cultivate younger prospects and provide pro contracts for interested players raised by other unions.

Japan - raising the standard of their domestic league with big contracts, but in a sensible way that will not ignore players developed at age grade by the Japanese union. Could potentially use 6N as leverage to pressurise The Rugby Championship into admitting them into the competition.

Georgia - pro contracts in the RESC. Top players in all positions getting exposure in the French league, not just forwards. Can consistently score tries in open play against Tier1 sides and showing improvement in play by backs. Should be hosting Italy this summer.

Romania - almost defeated a first XV Argentina. Great new modern stadium. Defeated first string Tonga with a second string Romanian side exclusively from the domestic league. Like Georgia, transitioning to better play by the backs. However, involvement in RESC and/or Toyota Challenge unclear and ongoing financial concerns for the domestic Superliga.

Uruguay - improving consistently via SLAR, already qualified for RWC. Ran Italy close in Italy.

Chile - meteoric rise via SLAR for a young side with average age of 24 and experimental selections at flyhalf and wing. Lots of upward potential yet and may qualify for RWC direct or via the repechage. Lack of depth in some positions so must avoid injuries.

Portugal - second only to Chile in the meteoric rise stakes. Almost defeated Japan and took some scalps in the REC. Chance of RWC qualification. Could improve further via RESC.

Russia - hired a new coach with excellent pedigree and expertise in youth and coach development (although this will likely result only in improvement over the longer term). Professional league seems well established and involved in RESC, so gaining access to additional games against Georgian pros.

Stagnating - Canada, Brazil, Spain (subject to an emergency performance review by World Rugby in November) and possibly USA (very nice league seems firmly established but questionmarks around national team coach and hindered by the demise of the Americas Rugby Championship of the 6 best national teams in the Americas).

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

2021 - Tier3 to Tier2 gap review

Not one I have observed so much. The main developments were Paraguay and Colombia having continued involvement in SLAR and Netherlands, Belgium and Israel being involved in RESC.

2022 - Tier3s to watch

Netherlands - play some attractive rugby and involved in RESC, but unusual selection policy there and remain amateur, so benefits appear unclear at this time.

Poland - making waves in the RE Trophy tournament with a young Welsh coaching staff. May be involved RESC shortly (unconfirmed) and appear likely to be promoted to the REC when it expands (unconfirmed).

Kenya - looked well coached, with an excellent half back pairing. Defeated pro players from Brazil, led Namibia at half time and may be included in the Toyota Challenge (unconfirmed). Cannot yet defend a maul adequately.

Israel - have several Israeli players in RESC being exposed to a high level against Russian and Georgian pros. Potential for this to turbo charge Israeli player development from what is currently a very low base.

China - have created an indigenous Chinese side for their domestic league (which is mainly ex-pats). Intend to field a team in NZ domestic scene, although unclear how feasible that will be with Chinese travel restrictions during pandemic.

Stagnating - Korea and Hong Kong. Hard to see how they may develop following demise of Global Rapid Rugby. Belgium and Germany continue to languish in the doldrums, although Belgian involvement in RESC may assist.

 

[Yulia]

Netherlands - play some attractive rugby and involved in RESC, but unusual selection policy there

I liked the Netherlands in European cup, they have a potential but what do you mean under "unusual selection policy" there?

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I liked the Netherlands in European cup, they have a potential but what do you mean under "unusual selection policy" there?

Sorry for the vagueness, instead of the Dutch picking their strongest side each week, they'd pick players from different local clubs, to try and get the clubs and players emotionally invested in the tournament. It is why in one week Delta could almost win in Spain and the games either side of that they would lose by 30+ points with a completely different set of players. I can see why they tried it but if they wish to gain supporters (and improve as a side) they need a more competitive team based on more consistent selection policy.

I agree the Dutch can look very promising, especially as they are currently pretty much only amateur (so I am told). They can run rings around some semi-pro players but obviously shouldn't have the same physical conditioning or tactical awareness. They are like a junior Portugal (possibly the most exciting Tier2 side to watch).

Also, I should have mentioned Colombia and Paraguay as Tier3s to watch due to SLAR, but I don't know what international fixtures they may get to show off any improvement in their form.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Portugal blew a 14 point second half lead against Italy. Agonising but overall very positive.

Chile getting pumped by Scottish reserves less so. Uruguay getting comfortably beaten by Japan over two tests also shows a gulf remains.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

looked like a fairly strong Italy side that faced Portugal. Good result for Portugal.

Maybe we can just start Southern Hemisphere excuses rolling with the other ones.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Shvilis everywhere rejoice as it turns out Italy can win in Cardiff in the diddy 6N but Tblisi (against a Georgian coach) is just too high level!

Georgia 28 - 19 Italy

Didn't see that coming, which makes it all the sweeter. A good talking point for World Rugby discussions about the structure of the international game.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Georgia > Italy > Wales > South Africa

Get the Webb Ellis in the post

 

[Tooting Carmen]

looked like a fairly strong Italy side that faced Portugal. Good result for Portugal.

Maybe we can just start Southern Hemisphere excuses rolling with the other ones.

Without wishing to belittle Portugal's close result, the Italy team they faced was considerably weaker than the one that later on faced Romania and Georgia.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Without wishing to belittle Portugal's close result, the Italy team they faced was considerably weaker than the one that later on faced Romania and Georgia.

From what I counted I think most of the team saw action in six nations but the bigger names sat out.

I think the biggest gap that is closing is that between tier 3 and tier 2. The smaller nations that have started putting together professional sides are threats to make a World Cup.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Overall not too many cross Tier fixtures this mid-year, and a very mixed bag that is difficult to decipher due to some experimental squad selections.

Highlights were:

- Georgia beating Italy (1st victory over a Tier1 ever and with a Georgian coach)
- Japan almost beating France (leading after 70mins, conceded an incredibly soft try then knocked on at the death when touching down to reclaim the victory.)
- Portugal almost beating Italy

Lowlights were:

- Italy hammering Romania
- Scotland hammering Chile
- Australia A beating Fiji
- Argentina A beating Georgia and Portugal
- no real initial signs of SR exposure translating into improved PI performance (very early days, we'll know better in the EOYTs)

I'd summarise it as being less predictable than ten years ago, but with a long way to go. I do get the sense if the various pro/semi pro leagues that have sprung up in the past 5 years can become financially stable (highly debatable) it is hard to see how the gap can fail to close significantly. The fact that a lot of Tier2s and 3s actually play some attractive rugby is also a big deal in terms of the sport becoming commercially viable in developing territories.

A big hurdle is that (in my opinion) the continental international tournaments are all either taking a step backwards (REC expanding prematurely to mix pro teams with amateurs, Africa cup curtailed and played in Europe) or have disappeared (Americas not yet replaced by a Sudamerica tournament and/or Pacific tournament). Without an annual, meaningful and competitive continental tournament I've no idea how administrators in these regions intend to engage fans. Flying Tier2s and 3s across the world in international windows to play each other in friendlies just isn't going to build any public interest. Attendances in Romania, Canada, Uruguay and even Japan have been pretty disappointing this past month.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Despite Covid throwing a wrench in things rugby is looking pretty good. The World Cup qualifiers are much more competitive this time around with more countries with realistic chances of making it than ever before.

The game has the highest amount of dedicated professionals at any point of history which I think has contributed to the game becoming more and more attractive. I think a big issue with attendance is that the matches seem to be random. If counties could get a better sense of when they tour and when they host they could do a better job of setting up relationships with fans and local clubs. Give them a year to work on attendance, not 3 months.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

So we have definitely seen some interesting steps this year.

Japan are continuing gradual improvement but still cannot front up against a top pack. They are getting ever closer to pulling off another Tier1 scalp though. I do think their success is dependent on having an outstanding coaching team and residency rules, but their league is starting to produce higher quality domestic talent.

Georgia bumping off a good Italy side and a misfiring Welsh one is extremely impressive and should not be a flash in the pan. Each new young player coming through for Georgia raises their standard.

WR financial prioritisation of the PIs by spending millions to subsidise their presence in Super Rugby has brought instant benefits. Fiji now have huge depth (competing in Scotland without a lot of their big name stars). Samoa and Tonga have been transformed and are routinely spanking the other Tier2 nations that don't benefit from diaspora players. Fans of these other Tier2 teams cannot believe the transformation of the PIs and (wrongly in my opinion) think their own sides have all underperformed. Samoa just defeated Georgia in Tblisi. The PIs remain a step short of the Tier1s but have an increased chance of taking out a Tier1 ranked 6 and under if they have an off day.

World Rugby have pulled off the political step of ensuring the PIs will take every available San Francisco agreement cross-tier test that they possibly can. So no Spain, Romania or Uruguay should be polluting a Tier 1 stadium near you any time soon.

The plus side is though that the PIs now provide a better bridge over to Tier1. Exposure of the non-favoured Tier2 unions to the PIs will raise their standard more so than in the past. The other Tier2s should be treating these matches as Cup finals to try and secure San Francisco agreement tests. Ironically, this may in the long term, help all of Tier2 close the gap on Tier1.

As for Tier3, it is much quieter. Kenya were hugely disappointing this month. Brazil are in crisis without a coach, have massively stagnated and have no meaningful international test tournament to help them progress (only SLAR). Belgium do not convince me at all. The only Tier3 hope I have for the next RWC cycle to 'do a Chile/Portugal' and go from Tier3 to RWC standard is the Netherlands. Brazil still have a chance and if Korea get their rumoured team in the Japanese league structure who knows. Unions that have largely ignored this model, such as Romania, US and Canada have stagnated and appear to consider they need to adopt this model in some way if they are to catch up.

Overall, positive steps but I don't expect any further movement prior to the RWC. Looking ahead to 2024 I can only hope for the APAC tournament starting and helping put pressure on the merits of an expanded Rugby Championship. I also hope for Tier3s like Poland, Germany, Czechs, Israel and Paraguay getting professional players/teams and trying to 'do a Chile' to develop and retain players until they are about 24 or 25years old rather than losing them to the jobs market/higher education. Plus, what will World Rugby do to advance their favoured children of North America (to replicate the investment in the PIs).

And to end on a negative note (as is they way of Tier2 observers) should global financial troubles bite, a lot of the recent gains (including for the PIs) may disappear as quickly as they have emerged. The PIs (€3.5million), SLAR and even the RESC (both around €100-150k per side per annum) are all reliant to some extent on World Rugby funds. So I'm hoping for a financially successful RWC and by 2027 growing to around 25-30 national sides with professional players who would be of a standard for a RWC qualifier. Maybe that will be the tipping point where Tier1 unions think more of future opportunities and sporting fairness and less of self interest.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

We are not even halfway through round 2 and have had two victory margins wider than anything in the last two RWCs.



The flip side is that nations that appeared on this list, like Japan, Georgia, Uruguay and Fiji should never reappear on this list unless their union implodes or they face financial catastrophe (both of which are entirely possible if the Tier 1 closed shop continues for a couple more decades).

 

[TRF_Olyy]

145-17 is wild, was there just a score from every kick off?

 

[saulan]

We are not even halfway through round 2 and have had two victory margins wider than anything in the last two RWCs.



The flip side is that nations that appeared on this list, like Japan, Georgia, Uruguay and Fiji should never reappear on this list unless their union implodes or they face financial catastrophe (both of which are entirely possible if the Tier 1 closed shop continues for a couple more decades).

Some are thankfully progressing (Georgia, Japan, Uruguay) others are lagging still (Namibia, Romania). Pacific Island teams have received a significant boost with the rule change and should remain competitive.

African rugby lack of development to a challenger to Namibia is concerning, given how weak they are, also given this tweet:


South American team development is looking good, North America will pick it up I'm sure with the strength of the MLR going and the hosting of their World Cup, and I do see the rest of Europe continuing to progress. I think there is definitely a reason to go to a 24 team tournament, but don't expand the number of African teams- or make them have to qualify through a final qualification tournament that isn't region specific. The evidence is clear that they are just not ready.

 

[Reiser99]

For me the world cup is the biggest issue. T2 nations might get the odd win, but there are never going to be huge upsets in who wins a major tournament. Take football as an example. Greece won Euro 2002. Now they weren't a bad side, but definitely nobody thought they would win (150-1 at the beginning of the tournament). I just don't see anything like that happening in Rugby. Teams get scares or the occasional upset, but reality is it's the same teams competing for the ***le.

For me the best example of teams making progress is probably Ireland. Mid 90s Ireland were at the bottom of the table mostly. 2000s they crept up the table then won by the end of the decade. 2010s they won more and more until now they are no.1 in the world. However that has taken 20-30 years of development and whilst playing t1 rugby regularly. It's simple as everyone has said plenty of times. Until t2 teams like Georgia, Namibia regularly get to play the best teams they won't improve. Fans will switch off as they will flip between beating lower ranked teams consistently and losing to higher ranked teams consistently.

 

[saulan]

Covid has also totally screwed things over. I just finished Rassie's book and there was reference to a couple of games as money spinners because SARU needed it (vs Wales in US, vs Eng outside of window). We obviously just had a massive one at Twickenham and we are still doing a lot to financially recover and continue to operate (URC definitely saving us also).

I think the smaller African unions need a key thing for their growth. Funding (and then effective management of the funding). Again, reading Rassie's book it was also clear how much effort they're putting in at U15 level to try and develop and grow talent. Kenya is having to beg for donations just to have enough money for flights to World Cup qualifiers. How do we expect them to grow with such limited resources? (Link below for reference)

It's great to see the progress in South America, and there you have an Argentina XV playing regularly against the remaining teams in South America and North America. Georgia and Romania should be getting more matches against Six Nations teams or getting involved in the Challenge Cup (in addition to the teams playing in South Africa's Currie Cup). But with the recent financial constraints, everyone is looking very short term and closed shop. This Nation's Cup idea is going to stagnate growth.

Incoherent rant over.

Kenya Simbas land mega sponsorship ahead of trip to France for World Cup qualifiers - Capital Sports

NAIROBI, Kenya, Jun 28 – Just a few days after launching a passionate appeal for funds, the national rugby 15s team Kenya Simbas have landed a mega Sh10mn Get the latest local and international sports updates, football, rugby, athletics, golf, cricket and more

www.capitalfm.co.ke

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Rugby 'the way to unify' Africa - Mensah

The man in charge of African rugby, Herbert Mensah, says the sport should be taught in every school across the continent because its "virtues are better than football".

www.bbc.com

might be a puff piece but he sounds energetic. Better than when Rugby Africa was run by a frenchman. Played Rugby while at University in the UK and Ghana Rugby took massive steps under his leadership.