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Mitre 10 Cup
[ITM Cup] Round 2
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<blockquote data-quote="ABs2011" data-source="post: 665440" data-attributes="member: 57663"><p>Yeah it's a real shame there is not a central website for the ITM cup....Surely it wouldn't take that much of an effort to come up with something....</p><p></p><p></p><p>Right, I'm gonna have to make my picks I guess....just to reiterate, my picks are based on expected return (i.e. odds value) vs who I actually think is gonna win the game. 2nd disclaimer is, unlike last week, I have yet to put any real bets down on these picks, and last disclaimer is I may change some of these once teams are announced.</p><p></p><p><strong>Harbour @ $2.45</strong> (via the "heartbreak special", i.e. bet is refunded should Harbour be winning at 70mins but go on to lose) - I was pretty stumped on this game, and still am to be honest. I give Harbour about a 40% chance of winning, inflated by the fact they are at home, they have good inside backs (thought Hall was particularly good v Otago), and I felt they had the tougher of the matchups in week 1. Southland look a bit more solid all round the park, but maybe Harbour can utilize those outside backs a bit more this week.</p><p></p><p><strong>Canterbury @ $1.25</strong> (via the 20+ point special) I actually think the TAB have made a bit of a mistake by offering these specials by Day as opposed to offering them on a game by game basis. Reason being, I believe this is a game where both teams may well score 20+. I'm going to take the safer option here and take Canterbury as (1) I'm not sure Waikato will hold them to less than 20 and (2) I think they are a pretty good chance of winning this game. They showed vs a pretty good looking Auckland team (on paper) that they are solid right across the park and seem big favourites to me to win an 8th straight ***le. Waikato looked really impressive against Wellington (B), but until I see more of them, I will keep that result in context as the first of the season against a Wellington side decimated by injuries. I hope Waikato continues to be a surprise this year though!!</p><p></p><p><strong>HB @ $1.62</strong> (again with the 20+ special) I really rate Tasman so am putting HBs week 1 loss in context. Their team is now out as well, and looks to be pretty solid. Last year they were tough at home, I expect the same again. Good inside backs with West and Eaton, some talent in the forwards with Evans, O'Connor, Abbot, Dixon, and some quality backs in Horrell, Fruean (who I hope will be much improved from week 1) and the Barracuda <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite1" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":)" /> Taranaki were rubbish in week 1 as well (all be it in crappy conditions).</p><p></p><p><strong>Wellington @ $1.16 </strong>(void if they lose by 3 or less) to be honest I don't think Ill go anywhere near this one with real money. Wellington are in trouble with injuries (although they have made some good changes for this week) and Northland look to be one of the worst teams in the comp. I'm nervous about Wellington having to travel, but otherwise they should in this by 13+ comfortably.</p><p></p><p><strong>Counties @ $1.45</strong> I really am completely undecided on this one. I was very unimpressed by Counties in week 1 - and don't think they deserved the draw. That being said this game is back on home ground where they proved last year they could step up to defend the Shield. Its also a day game which suits their style of play. On the other hand Otago looks better this year than last.....Ill keep thinking but am going to go with Counties for now. </p><p></p><p><strong>Auckland @ $1.27 </strong>I want to see their team sheet, but Auckland should win this easily.</p><p></p><p><strong>Tasman @ $1.37 </strong>BOP aren't much chop, Tasman I really like - enough said, Tasman to win!!</p><p></p><p>And there we have it...After all that I realise Ive picked exactly the same as Fish, but managed to blabber on for half a page <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite2" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=";)" /> </p><p> </p><p></p><p>Oh and running total from week 1 is + $272</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ABs2011, post: 665440, member: 57663"] Yeah it's a real shame there is not a central website for the ITM cup....Surely it wouldn't take that much of an effort to come up with something.... Right, I'm gonna have to make my picks I guess....just to reiterate, my picks are based on expected return (i.e. odds value) vs who I actually think is gonna win the game. 2nd disclaimer is, unlike last week, I have yet to put any real bets down on these picks, and last disclaimer is I may change some of these once teams are announced. [B]Harbour @ $2.45[/B] (via the "heartbreak special", i.e. bet is refunded should Harbour be winning at 70mins but go on to lose) - I was pretty stumped on this game, and still am to be honest. I give Harbour about a 40% chance of winning, inflated by the fact they are at home, they have good inside backs (thought Hall was particularly good v Otago), and I felt they had the tougher of the matchups in week 1. Southland look a bit more solid all round the park, but maybe Harbour can utilize those outside backs a bit more this week. [B]Canterbury @ $1.25[/B] (via the 20+ point special) I actually think the TAB have made a bit of a mistake by offering these specials by Day as opposed to offering them on a game by game basis. Reason being, I believe this is a game where both teams may well score 20+. I'm going to take the safer option here and take Canterbury as (1) I'm not sure Waikato will hold them to less than 20 and (2) I think they are a pretty good chance of winning this game. They showed vs a pretty good looking Auckland team (on paper) that they are solid right across the park and seem big favourites to me to win an 8th straight ***le. Waikato looked really impressive against Wellington (B), but until I see more of them, I will keep that result in context as the first of the season against a Wellington side decimated by injuries. I hope Waikato continues to be a surprise this year though!! [B]HB @ $1.62[/B] (again with the 20+ special) I really rate Tasman so am putting HBs week 1 loss in context. Their team is now out as well, and looks to be pretty solid. Last year they were tough at home, I expect the same again. Good inside backs with West and Eaton, some talent in the forwards with Evans, O'Connor, Abbot, Dixon, and some quality backs in Horrell, Fruean (who I hope will be much improved from week 1) and the Barracuda :) Taranaki were rubbish in week 1 as well (all be it in crappy conditions). [B]Wellington @ $1.16 [/B](void if they lose by 3 or less) to be honest I don't think Ill go anywhere near this one with real money. Wellington are in trouble with injuries (although they have made some good changes for this week) and Northland look to be one of the worst teams in the comp. I'm nervous about Wellington having to travel, but otherwise they should in this by 13+ comfortably. [B]Counties @ $1.45[/B] I really am completely undecided on this one. I was very unimpressed by Counties in week 1 - and don't think they deserved the draw. That being said this game is back on home ground where they proved last year they could step up to defend the Shield. Its also a day game which suits their style of play. On the other hand Otago looks better this year than last.....Ill keep thinking but am going to go with Counties for now. [B]Auckland @ $1.27 [/B]I want to see their team sheet, but Auckland should win this easily. [B]Tasman @ $1.37 [/B]BOP aren't much chop, Tasman I really like - enough said, Tasman to win!! And there we have it...After all that I realise Ive picked exactly the same as Fish, but managed to blabber on for half a page ;) Oh and running total from week 1 is + $272 [/QUOTE]
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