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Rugby Union
2021 British & Irish Lions Tour
Is Warren Gatland Simply a Lucky Coach?
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<blockquote data-quote="Penne Rara" data-source="post: 865781" data-attributes="member: 74680"><p>[USER=75051]@mania[/USER]: You've got to acknowledge that Ragerancher did make a fair point.</p><p></p><p>To declare that Gatland is a great coach as a consequence that Jones and Schmidt haven't coached the Lions does not make much sense. You could have said that, without any loss of generality, Gatland having done so well only means that he is a good coach. We're all entitled to our own opinions - and opinions are generally not proven points - but no one in their right mind should be denying quantitative results. And indeed, stats are showing that Gatland has been doing very well during the last two Lions tours compared to his immediate predecessors. But who's telling you that he is better than his rivals when no piece of information allows us to effectively draw a comparison between them (as far as it is about coaching the Lions)? I believe that rugby is such a complex sport that outcomes cannot be decided in advance following statistical studies let alone guessed by mere commoners such as you and me. Individual performance can't be foreseen, so any assumption about who's best suited for the job shouldn't lean on reasoning or quantitative data, as they don't represent a viable tool of prediction for an ever changing system. Under certain circumstances, Jones would have lost the tour if he had been appointed as the Lions coach. In a parallel Universe, Schmidt wins the tour 3-0... but England then proceeds to beat Ireland in the following Six Nations comp and win the Grand Slam. Unpredictability shouldn't allow us to draw quick conclusions, and especially not by using fallacious reasoning.</p><p></p><p>Edit: sorry I pressed the wrong button and the message showed up before I could finish writing it</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Penne Rara, post: 865781, member: 74680"] [USER=75051]@mania[/USER]: You've got to acknowledge that Ragerancher did make a fair point. To declare that Gatland is a great coach as a consequence that Jones and Schmidt haven't coached the Lions does not make much sense. You could have said that, without any loss of generality, Gatland having done so well only means that he is a good coach. We're all entitled to our own opinions - and opinions are generally not proven points - but no one in their right mind should be denying quantitative results. And indeed, stats are showing that Gatland has been doing very well during the last two Lions tours compared to his immediate predecessors. But who's telling you that he is better than his rivals when no piece of information allows us to effectively draw a comparison between them (as far as it is about coaching the Lions)? I believe that rugby is such a complex sport that outcomes cannot be decided in advance following statistical studies let alone guessed by mere commoners such as you and me. Individual performance can't be foreseen, so any assumption about who's best suited for the job shouldn't lean on reasoning or quantitative data, as they don't represent a viable tool of prediction for an ever changing system. Under certain circumstances, Jones would have lost the tour if he had been appointed as the Lions coach. In a parallel Universe, Schmidt wins the tour 3-0... but England then proceeds to beat Ireland in the following Six Nations comp and win the Grand Slam. Unpredictability shouldn't allow us to draw quick conclusions, and especially not by using fallacious reasoning. Edit: sorry I pressed the wrong button and the message showed up before I could finish writing it [/QUOTE]
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2021 British & Irish Lions Tour
Is Warren Gatland Simply a Lucky Coach?
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