MM, when was Trimble's last bad game for Ireland? It wasn't this season. Nor was it in the last summer tour. Fitzgerald has been appalling pretty much all season and really should have completely lost his place to McFadden.
My choice for Ireland's wings would be Bowe and Earls, Trimble on the bench/first injury cover, McFadden as the squad cover and Luke Fitzgerald left at home barring a spectecular summer.
You are right to look at Pienaar's arrival, but he's still played well when paired with Paul Marshall. His kicking has also been ridiculously good all season long.
I'd agree you wouldn't want to play him if you could help it at international level, there's a bit too much inconsistency there not to mention the tackling.
But Keatley should not be ahead of him. Keatley's done plenty of bone-headed things himself, he's not the same attacking threat, and he's not as experienced. He's not gone through the same high-pressure situations either. Humphreys has played teams like Munster, Biarritz and Bath in decisive HC matches and done it succesfully. About the only thing Keatley does better is tackle.