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<blockquote data-quote="RedruthRFC" data-source="post: 828163" data-attributes="member: 58362"><p>On that basis, isn't the week that you win the lottery an outlier over a lifetime of buying lottery tickets?</p><p></p><p>My very old maths A-Level is serving me poorly here (I suspect it's have enjoyed it a lot more and done a lot better if statistics was related a lot more closely to real life applications like this), but isn't it possible to calculate the probability that each average is an accurate indicator in the same way that it is to say whether a gambler is genuinely +EV or just running hot?</p><p></p><p><a href="http://goalkickers.co.za/" target="_blank">http://goalkickers.co.za/</a> provides an excellent example of how much more deeply statistics need to be considered before being considered a useful indicator when considered in isolation.</p><p></p><p>For anyone who's interested, Googling "sabermetrics rugby" throws up a few interesting articles, although they're all pretty anecdotal. Maybe fodder for a new thread here.</p><p></p><p><span style="color: silver"><span style="font-size: 9px">- - - Updated - - -</span></span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Agreed 100%. I look at this the same way as dealing on money markets, you need a combination of statistical and fundamental analysis to draw useful conclusions and need to understand how to interpret statistics when you do look at them.</p><p></p><p>In sport, statistics make simple column inches for lazy journalists and an easy way to "prove" a point for lazy minded supporters. Everyone here appears to be thinking on a deeper level which is making for an interesting discussion.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="RedruthRFC, post: 828163, member: 58362"] On that basis, isn't the week that you win the lottery an outlier over a lifetime of buying lottery tickets? My very old maths A-Level is serving me poorly here (I suspect it's have enjoyed it a lot more and done a lot better if statistics was related a lot more closely to real life applications like this), but isn't it possible to calculate the probability that each average is an accurate indicator in the same way that it is to say whether a gambler is genuinely +EV or just running hot? [URL]http://goalkickers.co.za/[/URL] provides an excellent example of how much more deeply statistics need to be considered before being considered a useful indicator when considered in isolation. For anyone who's interested, Googling "sabermetrics rugby" throws up a few interesting articles, although they're all pretty anecdotal. Maybe fodder for a new thread here. [COLOR="silver"][SIZE=1]- - - Updated - - -[/SIZE][/COLOR] Agreed 100%. I look at this the same way as dealing on money markets, you need a combination of statistical and fundamental analysis to draw useful conclusions and need to understand how to interpret statistics when you do look at them. In sport, statistics make simple column inches for lazy journalists and an easy way to "prove" a point for lazy minded supporters. Everyone here appears to be thinking on a deeper level which is making for an interesting discussion. [/QUOTE]
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