Conspiracy theory?... Irish fans chime in? (long-ish)

[Dai Perk]

OK.

Been listening to every podcast I can find for Six Nations coverage. It's been great hearing the same games analyzed from the English POV, the Irish POV, the Welsh POV, and the Scottish POV, not to mention the South African coverage and Kiwi coverage. Always enlightening to get so many different angles on the same series of events.

What I'm hearing a lot of from the English pundits is, "Yes, this is going great, but maybe we've tipped our hand too early? Maybe we should be holding back a bit on the cusp of a World Cup? Maybe it will be a long-term detriment that there's all this tape of us playing our top game, which the other nations will spend months voraciously dissecting?"

Interesting, though I'm unconvinced... How can a coach say to his or her players, "OK, everyone, go out and beat them, but not too badly, and don't really give it your all." Even if a coach did say that, how does a professional player at this lofty level actually do that? Seems apocryphal to me...

BUT, that got me thinking about the other side of the coin. While the English are showing it all, the Irish haven't been at the top of their game. They're ranked #2 in the world, but have come out a bit lackluster for two weeks in a row.

SO, my conspiracy theory is, while the notion of the English showing too much is silly, maybe, just maybe, the Irish are keeping some stuff in reserve, knowing how good they truly are? Eddie Jones had his comments about Ireland "boring you to death," and then, we've seen them be a bit off, a bit under-committed.

Maybe, just maybe, Ireland is like, "We know we can win the World Cup. It's ours. So let's give the Six Nations our B effort, which will still be good enough for a 2nd or 3rd place finish, throw everyone off the scent, then come September in Japan, blow everyone away with the advantage of surprise, even though everyone should have seen it coming!" ...?

I'm not saying I'm convinced this is a thing, but, seriously, could I be on to something?

Our next clue is a few weeks away, I wonder if this idea might gain any momentum.

As always, I'm just a dumb American who's been watching for only about a year, so all theories horribly wrong or your money back.

(Drops mic)

 

[Mr Ruggleby]

I don't think England are thinking about holding back or not - their game plan tends to change a fair bit based on who they are playing anyway, so I'm not sure how much other sides will learn from these performances. If anything, teams reacting to the kicking game they've used the last two weeks will actually open up holes for the power runners. The second point on England would be that this is the first time they have had most potential 1st choice players fit under Eddie (and still missing Watson, Underhill, Maro & Joseph), so I think that personnel is also playing a more significant part in these performances than Eddie and co opening their box of tricks too early.

On the general subject of holding back certain things ahead of a world cup, there is certainly precedent. There have been reports and comments from ex-All Blacks that they would keep plenty back in the couple of years before the tournament and then unleash it in the knock-out stages (see NZ v France in 2015). The reason I think this is at best only partially true with Ireland is that they are not the All Blacks. They have never even reached a semi-final and so I can't believe that they are keeping anything in reserve for what is essentially uncharted territory. Secondly, the way Ireland play is quite formulaic and hasn't changed much since Schmidt first installed the game plan. As a result, I can't really see them reinventing the wheel, as what they have works well for the personnel available and I'm not sure they actually have the players (certainly not any with decent International experience) to play in a drastically different style. That being said, Schmidt is a masterful coach and the Irish team is full of smart players, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if there were some wrinkles/strike moves being added in training that won't see the light of day until Ireland v Scotland in Japan and/or the knock-out stages.

 

[bushytop]

Peaking too early is deffo a thing... you only have to speak to a new Zealander who was alive between 1988 and 2011... whether or not this is what this England side is doing remains to be seen...

I'll tell you who isn't peaking too early though... Wales! Maybe we're timing it just right

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

You've unknowingly came up with a theory that became a bit of a meme in 2015, all Irish fans were saying this when Schmidt was still in his early days as a coach and we were far from an attacking powerhouse in the build up. It did turn out to be a little bit true, there were some new things in the France (before Keith Earls forgot the importance of catching the ball) and Argentina games attack wise but nothing major.

At most there's a few strike moves in the pipeline that haven't been used yet although Schmidt said that Stockdale try was a new move so results here are 100% important, and I wouldn't be surprised if Schmidt is doing a lot of homework on SA and NZ right now at the expense of what he'd usually do for the big 6n games but the man is so meticulous that that should only have so much of an effect.

Ultimately the team is just a bit injured and/or rusty returning from injury, there was a howler of a selection at 15 against England that never allowed us a foothold in the game and after a beating like that you have to feel your way into the tournament. I'm pretty sure that if we were to win our three remaining games we'll retain our spot at number 2 in the rankings going into the competition regardless of what England do so that's worth protecting for confidence alone.

We had great 6 nations before both the 2007 and 2015 RWC's and they'd rank as our worst and third worst RWC's respectively in my opinion so a loss that will live long in the memory like Dublin will hopefully be good for us.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

Is peaking too early really a thing? Or are the teams just not strong enough mentally?

Continuing a high level of performance and mental fortitude will win world cups, its all mental according to most international coaches that I've heard talk about this stuff.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

No team wants to come into a RWC and start of with 2 poor showings let alone the whole 6N's.

Every team that has won a RWC have in that season been a dominant force near enough. (Maybe the odd execption here an there like the Aussies winning the rugby's championships)

In fact the 1 NH team to win a Grand Slam during a RWC year won the RWC England 2003!
No other NH team has won a Grand slam during a RWC year.

At this stage a winning mentality is IMO the key thing.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Is peaking too early really a thing? Or are the teams just not strong enough mentally?

Continuing a high level of performance and mental fortitude will win world cups, its all mental according to most international coaches that I've heard talk about this stuff.

Considering peaking is massively subjective it is a difficult one to determine but from a purely physical point of view it is definitely possible to plateau at the wrong time. Anyone who is a regular gym goer knows that you can't constantly be getting stronger, quicker, more agile or whatever your goals are, you eventually hit a ceiling and have to alter your workout to adapt, and then it can take weeks or even months to see any substantial improvement. There's also a science to ensuring you reach your physical peak at the correct time in sports like sprinting and weightlifting. How much this can affect a group of 23/31 players is up for debate.

A simple eye test would suggest that teams go through peaks and troughs though, England being the only team to win a championship, Tri or 6 nations, and a RWC in the same year is testament to that. As long as I've been watching successful Leinster teams they tend to play their best rugby in rounds 3 and 4 of Europe and the quarter and semi finals. I think that's more to do with maintaining focus and selecting potential 'banana skin' matches to really concentrate on because players will naturally focus for finals, grand slam deciders and great teams will be able to win 75% of their games playing very much within themselves too.

No team wants to come into a RWC and start of with 2 poor showings let alone the whole 6N's.

Every team that has won a RWC have in that season been a dominant force near enough. (Maybe the odd execption here an there.

In fact the 1 NH team to win a Grand Slam during a RWC year won the RWC England 2003!
No other NH team has won a Grand slam during a RWC year.

At this stage a winning mentality is IMO the key thing.

I agree with this for the most part with the exception of "in that season". That only applies for England, no team has ever won the RC/Tri Nations and RWC in the same year. I'd argue the RC is too close to the RWC to be firing on all cylinders and expecting to maintain that. I think the previous calendar year is just as important, possibly more so depending on the side. For example, even if Ireland continue playing relatively poorly and end up losing in Cardiff I don't think it'll affect their confidence, they'll still be going into the RWC knowing they've beaten everyone there is to beat in the last two years and that they can do it again. (Although if they do beat Wales they'll be the only country going into the RWC without a losing record v anyone in the World Cup cycle which is an extra layer of confidence)

If England or Wales complete this slam it'll make the World Cup very interesting with three teams having had dominant spells within a year of the cup.

 

[ncurd]

The main thing with England's last two performances (and a lesser extent the AI's) is this is not a shock whilst they were wobbly in 2017 and the earlier half of 2018 was hellish we've known for some time that this England team can play like this. The real proof will be in Cardiff, the hype is there, we've won there on the previous two occasions, can we carry the momentum we've built from Dublin and lesser extent London. If we do we have the kind of performance we've put in so far then I think every team will worry about playing us and were playing in the kind of form we did in 2016.

The reality is most world cups like NZ, England to a lesser extent will always be there or there abouts (1 RWC, 2 final appearances & 2 SF in 8 world cups is an excellent strike rate), and as a contender but confidence is what this teams need and these performances are building on that.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I agree with this for the most part with the exception of "in that season". That only applies for England, no team has ever won the RC/Tri Nations and RWC in the same year. I'd argue the RC is too close to the RWC to be firing on all cylinders and expecting to maintain that. I think the previous calendar year is just as important, possibly more so depending on the side. For example, even if Ireland continue playing relatively poorly and end up losing in Cardiff I don't think it'll affect their confidence, they'll still be going into the RWC knowing they've beaten everyone there is to beat in the last two years and that they can do it again. (Although if they do beat Wales they'll be the only country going into the RWC without a losing record v anyone in the World Cup cycle which is an extra layer of confidence)

If England or Wales complete this slam it'll make the World Cup very interesting with three teams having had dominant spells within a year of the cup.

Some counters to that for NZ was still the number 1 team in the world after those loses
2015 - was only 3 games (Aus still got to the final)
2011 - Personally i consider that an exception. (although maybe NZ home advantage played into that RWC win more than anything else)

Despite what Ireland might have thought they were not world number 1 coming into the 6N's let alone the RWC now.


Sure Ireland might think that they have beaten everyone in the RWC cycle as a big +.
But are you really telling me that a team going into the biggest competition of their lives might not think can a team hammer us like the English did at home?
NZ have that cockiness to not care if they are beaten so much, I don't think Schmidt has that with this Ireland team, they still looked unsure against Scotland this weekend.

Sure Ireland might get a reaction to that loss but it needs to be in this 6N's, and it needs to be that Wales in Cardiff game IMO, because in 8 months time that loss will linger more and more if they don't get some closure IMO, an Away loss to England is one thing but the manner of which they lost even with a out of position 15 will really worry them especially in the forwards.

(Just my 2 cents of rugby, but I have my Rugby Ready certificate so I do know what i'm talking about)....

Wales winning the Grand Slam will prove nothing IMO, they haven't won a game against a top 3 team in the last 3 years. (Really more like 4/5 years since England wasn't really a top 3 team in RWC 2015) beating Ireland and England at home will be a big boost just don't see them doing it in a neutral play-off game.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Some counters to that for NZ was still the number 1 team in the world after those loses
2015 - was only 3 games (Aus still got to the final)
2011 - Personally i consider that an exception. (although maybe NZ home advantage played into that RWC win more than anything else)

Despite what Ireland might have thought they were not world number 1 coming into the 6N's let alone the RWC now.


Sure Ireland might think that they have beaten everyone in the RWC cycle as a big +.
But are you really telling me that a team going into the biggest competition of their lives might not think can a team hammer us like the English did at home?
NZ have that cockiness to not care if they are beaten so much, I don't think Schmidt has that with this Ireland team, they still looked unsure against Scotland this weekend.

Sure Ireland might get a reaction to that loss but it needs to be in this 6N's, and it needs to be that Wales in Cardiff game IMO, because in 8 months time that loss will linger more and more if they don't get some closure IMO, an Away loss to England is one thing but the manner of which they lost even with a out of position 15 will really worry them especially in the forwards.

(Just my 2 cents of rugby, but I have my Rugby Ready certificate so I do know what i'm talking about)....

Wales winning the Grand Slam will prove nothing IMO, they haven't won a game against a top 3 team in the last 3 years. (Really more like 4/5 years since England wasn't really a top 3 team in RWC 2015) beating Ireland and England at home will be a big boost just don't see them doing it in a neutral play-off game.

I don't think anyone in Ireland was claiming we were world number 1, NZ has too much in the bank despite us being the best team in 2018.

I also think having a recent winning streak is bigger for English sides than anyone else, if you look at Saracens' and England's recent dominant runs it took a massive effort to knock them off their perch despite a long period of abject form, they just kept winning and then they fell off for about a year after a loss. Call it a habit, arrogance, whatever you want, Leicester were the same back in their heyday if I remember correctly and winning suits the English, you're fragile after a loss and generally let it snowball.

Munster and Leinster lost important European games during their dominant years, Ireland have lost games they should have won in recent years just before their dominant period, and lost bang in the middle of last year which was the most successful year in Irish rugby to date. The England game wasn't good but equally, until Ireland let the last 15 minutes get away from them, they weren't absolute shite which is usually when you know we're in trouble. I don't think the Scotland game can be seen negatively either, it was an injury affected team winning away in the 6 nations, Scotland's first home loss since 2016 too and more than anything it showed the big players in this team have what it takes to play and win when faced with adversity, Sexton was running the show and building what would have been a BP win but for his injury, PO'M was MOTM after a bad performance last week, Kearney showed his quality too.

While I don't think we needed to lose to England like some are saying I don't think it'll dent the potential of this team long term especially after last week. And a loss that'll live long in the memory like that will really help motivate this team even further if they meet England in the RWC.

Looking further into it and I really don't rate 6 nations form as much leading into the RWC, if anything 2003 was the exception, the last three six nations champions in RWC years have fallen quite a bit short of expectations, France in 2007 were good enough to win that tournament at home, lost two games, England and Ireland were disastrous once they reached the knockouts in 2011 and 2015 respectively. In addition to that 4 win Ireland in 2007 and 4 win England in 2015 were the stuff of nightmares in the WC!

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Yes Ireland, Leinster and Munster have lost in important games before in successful seasons, but Ireland are trying to get into uncharted territories. (Leicester in their heyday were far from fragile BTW).

It's easier to carry on success after a loss in competitions you are used to like Europe and 6N's.

I don't disagree with the final part, usually a 6N's team best chance of making the final is indeed playing 6N's teams in the play offs.
Wales and France for 2003
And
England and Wales for 2011

Which IMO points to how much confidence can affect how they play when they do play a SH team in the play offs.

Also disagree with Ireland played v England they were comepltely smashed for pretty much the whole 80 maybe with a 10 min before Half time of fightback.

I'm not trying to **** on Ireland's chances I think currently they have more of a chance than England (unless England win a Grand Slam) and would honestly love to see Ireland win if England don't (would prefer Japan though), I just fail to see any silver lining in losing at Home like that, the emotion value will be gone in 8/9 months time and relies on facing England.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Yes Ireland, Leinster and Munster have lost in important games before in successful seasons, but Ireland are trying to get into uncharted territories. (Leicester in their heyday were far from fragile BTW).

It's easier to carry on success after a loss in competitions you are used to like Europe and 6N's.

I don't disagree with the final part, usually a 6N's team best chance of making the final is indeed playing 6N's teams in the play offs.
Wales and France for 2003
And
England and Wales for 2011

Which IMO points to how much confidence can affect how they play when they do play a SH team in the play offs.

Also disagree with Ireland played v England they were comepltely smashed for pretty much the whole 80 maybe with a 10 min before Half time of fightback.

I'm not trying to **** on Ireland's chances I think currently they have more of a chance than England (unless England win a Grand Slam) and would honestly love to see Ireland win if England don't (would prefer Japan though), I just fail to see any silver lining in losing at Home like that, the emotion value will be gone in 8/9 months time and relies on facing England.

Apart from a potential motivational boost if they play England I agree there's no value in it but I don't see it as anything that's going to override the past 18 months of success.

I agree that if England win the slam they're the NH favourites, even if they don't and win the 6nations, 3/4 6nations more or less has them as Europe's strongest and most consistent side.

 

[Mr Ruggleby]

Call it a habit, arrogance, whatever you want, Leicester were the same back in their heyday if I remember correctly and winning suits the English, you're fragile after a loss and generally let it snowball.

This comment is founded in no fact whatsoever - certainly in relation to our respective national teams:

If you consider a loss streak 2 or more consecutive losses then since 2010:

England Total Losses: 32
Losing Streaks: 7
Average length of streak: 2.86 games

Wales Total Losses: 50
Losing Streaks: 11
Average length of streak: 3.18 games

Ireland Total Losses: 37
Losing Streaks: 9
Average length of streak: 2.77

If you set the requirement for losing streaks at 3 or more games then England have had 2 over this span to Ireland's 3 and Wales's 5.

This also doesn't mention the fact that other than England's streak of 5 losses last year to Scotland, France, Ireland, SA & SA, the only other losing streak of more than 2 games was when they played NZ, NZ, NZ, NZ, SA.

Check Yoself B4 U Wreck Yoself Bruv.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Yeh but how many trophies have England won in that period?

He is saying that loses don't affect the Irish teams ability to win the competition as much as it does the English which I can kind of see.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Yeh but how many trophies have England won in that period?

He is saying that loses don't affect the Irish teams ability to win the competition as much as it does the English which I can kind of see.

Yeah. England were one of the top two European sides every year since 2011 imo (The end of their post 2003 slump...), last year included and they only have the joint best 6n record and a worse RWC record than Ireland, France and Wales when all of them had long tragic patches in the period, world cups included. When they won, they were massively dominant like the opening fixtures this year and lost their last matches of the 6n if they didn't get a slam.

It's no criticism, just more to my point that a successful 6n this year is probably bigger for England than it would be for Ireland or Wales, 2011 was both Ireland's and Wales' best world cup after a forgettable 6n. "The favourite tag suits them better" is the clichéd and overly simplistic way to put it.

 

[Dai Perk]

I'll tell you who isn't peaking too early though... Wales! Maybe we're timing it just right

I heard some BLISTERING criticism of how Wales have played thus far, I think I was hoodwinked by their winning, especially in comeback-style in the first match. Now I wonder - if they get two wins playing poorly, then get a couple weeks to make adjustments, they could be a real dark horse contender!...

 

[Dai Perk]

At most there's a few strike moves in the pipeline that haven't been used yet although Schmidt said that Stockdale try was a new move so results here are 100% important, and I wouldn't be surprised if Schmidt is doing a lot of homework on SA and NZ right now at the expense of what he'd usually do for the big 6n games but the man is so meticulous that that should only have so much of an effect.

I know exactly what you're talking about, I heard a great interview about that try and how they'd sorta had it in the bag for some time... great stuff!

 

[bushytop]

I heard some BLISTERING criticism of how Wales have played thus far, I think I was hoodwinked by their winning, especially in comeback-style in the first match. Now I wonder - if they get two wins playing poorly, then get a couple weeks to make adjustments, they could be a real dark horse contender!...

My man!

 

[Dai Perk]

England Total Losses: 32
Losing Streaks: 7
Average length of streak: 2.86 games

Wales Total Losses: 50
Losing Streaks: 11
Average length of streak: 3.18 games

Ireland Total Losses: 37
Losing Streaks: 9
Average length of streak: 2.77

I gotta ask - did you compile all these numbers yourself? I'm a bit of a stat nerd, and with the NFL, I can find numbers analysis of this sort in a million places, but haven't any idea at all where to get similar breakdowns for rugby... If you have a go-to site for this kinda thing, I'd love to get the link!

 

[Mr Ruggleby]

Yeh but how many trophies have England won in that period?

He is saying that loses don't affect the Irish teams ability to win the competition as much as it does the English which I can kind of see.

I'm not sure how you see that? Over the same period (2010-2018) England have won 3 six nations, as have Ireland. The number of losses and streak length are fairly similar.

Looking at the specifics:

England won the 6N in 2011 after losing their final game prior to the tournament.
England won the Grand Slam in 2016 after crashing out of their own World Cup in the pool stages.
2017 is the only year we have gone into the tournament on a run of wins and then won (albeit without the slam).
Conversely, in 2018 we came into the tournament having won 24 from 25 and finished 5th!

Ireland had actually won 7 on the bounce before the start of their 2015 grand slam winning 6 nations.
They had also won 7 on the bounce before the start of their 2018 grand slam winning 6 nations.
So if you want to talk about correlations between winning streaks and tournament success...

It's no criticism, just more to my point that a successful 6n this year is probably bigger for England than it would be for Ireland or Wales, 2011 was both Ireland's and Wales' best world cup after a forgettable 6n. "The favourite tag suits them better" is the clichéd and overly simplistic way to put it.

It's a nice idea but there isn't any actual evidence to back it up. Better teams just tend to win more, by definition in most instances. There is nothing to suggest that a run of wins or losses for England means anything more or less than it does to Ireland. If anything there is a slight slant in the (very limited) evidence to suggest that momentum is actually more important to Ireland.

My personal thought is that way too much weight is placed into recent results in international rugby when trying to establish a hierarchy or predict performance. Instead we should focus on analysing the players, the playing and coaching intent and the mitigating factors (injuries, weather, referees). Small margins can lead to sizable swings in final results - that doesn't mean they should be extrapolated as a trend immediately. It seems that the culture of our media and fan bases is such that everyone wants to constantly anoint a rising juggernaut or a sinking ship at the first chance, often simply because one or two blokes had an off day or a sore foot!

N.B. Obviously it is different when the issue is endemic e.g. the malaise of French Rugby that has persisted over a long period.