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Ian Foster is set to name His first all blacks squad at 11am NZ time today. As far as I can tell, no indication had been given on how big the squad will be. But it will probably be fairly large.
props
it will be interesting what the philosophy is regarding props. Will they choose strong scrummagers or players who are good around the field. Certainly it was the latter that took prominence following our loss to Ireland and foster may still see that as paramount. It is taavao who will be in or out based on this philosophy. And given neither mafileo made the north or south squads one must suspect that scrummaging alone isn't enough. On the other hand big Karl started for the north, and Alex hodgman whose work rate is huge didn't make the 23 for the south.
I suspect three specialist loosies and three specialist tightheads will be picked with one extra player who can play on either side.
Moody, laulala, and tu'ungafasi are definites. At least one of bower and O'Neill are likely to make it as the strongest contenders for playing either side. I can't remember how bad O'Neills injury was, perhaps he is not in contention.
My prediction is Moody, Karl, hodgman, ofa, laulala, lomax, bower.
locks
no retallick, Parkinson, barret, Dickson.
It will be very interesting whether they try and fill the gap with the best available or whether they try and develop for the future. Scrafton and Dunshea may be the best gap fillers, but Vaa'I and selby rickit may be better bets for the future. Quentin strange might be somewhere in the middle. I don't see them picking anyone outside those 5. Apart from whitelock and Tuipulotu who are certainties, not needing to be mentioned. Vaa'I played well in the north vs south match. I think they will pick at least one of Scrafton and strange, for relative prowess in the line outs. And one of Vaa'I and selby rickit.
my prediction is Whitelock, Tuipulotu, strange, vaai
loosies
a lot to choose from here. It's not necessarily the hardest area to pick, but it certainly is the area where a lot of great players will miss out. They will want to ensure they have the right mix of ball runners, Defenders, ruck experts, and lineout options.
cane, savea, sotutu, frizell are all certainties. From there perhaps they look at what happens if one of them is injured prior to the game, how do they ensure they maintain he right balance. If cane is injured papalii comes Onto the bench. If savea is injured, probably the same, though they'd be lacking a good 8 option if sotutu we're going to get injured during the game. If sotutu is injured, maybe papalii is still the best option to come onto the bench, but possibly Akira ione is. If frizell is injured, the best option is probably cullen grace to come into the reserves, for lineout cover. So, if they were to pick 5, papalii would Probably be the addition. If they were to pick 6, maybe we need to consider concurrent injuries in the 5. If the two first choice sides were injured, frizell and savea, papalii would slot in at 6 and you'd want a 6 8 option on the bench. That's Akira. If The two best seven options were injured, cane and savea, papalii would slot in at 7, You'd need someone who could cover 7 on the bench, maybe Tom Christie Or Lachlan Boshier is who they'd look at. If the best two 8 options were injured, sotutu and savea, they'd bring in an 8 to start and papalii would stay on the bench. That's Akira. But if your best two lineout options are injured, sotutu and frizell, I think they'd want Cullen grace to start. Or, Quentin strange is used as a versatile lock blindside option. Boshier is also strong in the lineout. Tricky.
My prediction is cane, savea, frizell, papalii, sotutu, Akira, Christie
halfback
I'm not convinced brad Weber has played very well this year, but he was great last year. I don't know what happened to ttt and there appears to be no one else in contention so this selection is a no brainer
my prediction is smith Perenara weber
first five
Beauden and mounga are certainties. Then comes the question of whether they pick anyone else, or just rely on Jordie, Damian, and tj to back up. Josh ione is surely next in line.
my prediction is mounga barret ione
midfield
Laumape is injured. Lienert brown, ione, and goodhue will make it. They then need a fourth, which will be between umaga Jensen and Braydon ennor. The crusaders struggled at times to get enough punch with the goodhue ennor combination, but ennor has great vision and probably the best conventional pass out of all the contenders. With the fullback coming into the line in fosters style the passing game becomes less important, but it is still a handy asset given the current mix if players being more offloaders than conventional passers. They might also be thinking it would be good to give Jordie some time in the midfield as a way of getting mounga, McKenzie, Beauden, and Jordie all On the field at the same time. The other contender is Leicester faingaanuku, who has more experience on the wing but who these selectors may see as a midfield option for the future. Especially as they know Laumape is to return at some point, there thinking might be long term. Umaga Jensen has been sensational this year though.
my prediction is lienert-brown ione goodhue umaga-Jensen
outside backs
I think they pick 6 here, just because it's too hard to leave anyone out
my prediction is goodhue reece Clarke Jordan Jordie McKenzie
props
it will be interesting what the philosophy is regarding props. Will they choose strong scrummagers or players who are good around the field. Certainly it was the latter that took prominence following our loss to Ireland and foster may still see that as paramount. It is taavao who will be in or out based on this philosophy. And given neither mafileo made the north or south squads one must suspect that scrummaging alone isn't enough. On the other hand big Karl started for the north, and Alex hodgman whose work rate is huge didn't make the 23 for the south.
I suspect three specialist loosies and three specialist tightheads will be picked with one extra player who can play on either side.
Moody, laulala, and tu'ungafasi are definites. At least one of bower and O'Neill are likely to make it as the strongest contenders for playing either side. I can't remember how bad O'Neills injury was, perhaps he is not in contention.
My prediction is Moody, Karl, hodgman, ofa, laulala, lomax, bower.
locks
no retallick, Parkinson, barret, Dickson.
It will be very interesting whether they try and fill the gap with the best available or whether they try and develop for the future. Scrafton and Dunshea may be the best gap fillers, but Vaa'I and selby rickit may be better bets for the future. Quentin strange might be somewhere in the middle. I don't see them picking anyone outside those 5. Apart from whitelock and Tuipulotu who are certainties, not needing to be mentioned. Vaa'I played well in the north vs south match. I think they will pick at least one of Scrafton and strange, for relative prowess in the line outs. And one of Vaa'I and selby rickit.
my prediction is Whitelock, Tuipulotu, strange, vaai
loosies
a lot to choose from here. It's not necessarily the hardest area to pick, but it certainly is the area where a lot of great players will miss out. They will want to ensure they have the right mix of ball runners, Defenders, ruck experts, and lineout options.
cane, savea, sotutu, frizell are all certainties. From there perhaps they look at what happens if one of them is injured prior to the game, how do they ensure they maintain he right balance. If cane is injured papalii comes Onto the bench. If savea is injured, probably the same, though they'd be lacking a good 8 option if sotutu we're going to get injured during the game. If sotutu is injured, maybe papalii is still the best option to come onto the bench, but possibly Akira ione is. If frizell is injured, the best option is probably cullen grace to come into the reserves, for lineout cover. So, if they were to pick 5, papalii would Probably be the addition. If they were to pick 6, maybe we need to consider concurrent injuries in the 5. If the two first choice sides were injured, frizell and savea, papalii would slot in at 6 and you'd want a 6 8 option on the bench. That's Akira. If The two best seven options were injured, cane and savea, papalii would slot in at 7, You'd need someone who could cover 7 on the bench, maybe Tom Christie Or Lachlan Boshier is who they'd look at. If the best two 8 options were injured, sotutu and savea, they'd bring in an 8 to start and papalii would stay on the bench. That's Akira. But if your best two lineout options are injured, sotutu and frizell, I think they'd want Cullen grace to start. Or, Quentin strange is used as a versatile lock blindside option. Boshier is also strong in the lineout. Tricky.
My prediction is cane, savea, frizell, papalii, sotutu, Akira, Christie
halfback
I'm not convinced brad Weber has played very well this year, but he was great last year. I don't know what happened to ttt and there appears to be no one else in contention so this selection is a no brainer
my prediction is smith Perenara weber
first five
Beauden and mounga are certainties. Then comes the question of whether they pick anyone else, or just rely on Jordie, Damian, and tj to back up. Josh ione is surely next in line.
my prediction is mounga barret ione
midfield
Laumape is injured. Lienert brown, ione, and goodhue will make it. They then need a fourth, which will be between umaga Jensen and Braydon ennor. The crusaders struggled at times to get enough punch with the goodhue ennor combination, but ennor has great vision and probably the best conventional pass out of all the contenders. With the fullback coming into the line in fosters style the passing game becomes less important, but it is still a handy asset given the current mix if players being more offloaders than conventional passers. They might also be thinking it would be good to give Jordie some time in the midfield as a way of getting mounga, McKenzie, Beauden, and Jordie all On the field at the same time. The other contender is Leicester faingaanuku, who has more experience on the wing but who these selectors may see as a midfield option for the future. Especially as they know Laumape is to return at some point, there thinking might be long term. Umaga Jensen has been sensational this year though.
my prediction is lienert-brown ione goodhue umaga-Jensen
outside backs
I think they pick 6 here, just because it's too hard to leave anyone out
my prediction is goodhue reece Clarke Jordan Jordie McKenzie