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<blockquote data-quote="Which Tyler" data-source="post: 1107977" data-attributes="member: 73592">[URL unfurl=&quot;true&quot;]https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/16/poland-missile-unlikely-to-have-been-fired-from-russia-biden-says[/URL]Which is why we wait on the evidence, rather than going off half-cock.First it needs to be clarified whether these were Russian missiles or Ukrainian - from what I can tell it&#039;s still in doubt (as in, I&#039;m seeing people and analysts I trust in stringent disagreement with each other).If Russian, it needs to be clarified if it was accidental, &quot;accidental&quot; or deliberate.If Russian then there&#039;s a good chance that article 4 will be triggered; but highly unlikely article 5 (that would, presumably, require deliberate and rather blatant targetting of Poland by Russia - even then, I&#039;m not convinced A5 would be triggered over 2 dead people).The most likely responses (if Russian) seem to me, that NATO send a couple of cruise missiles at Russian targets deep in occupied Ukraine (maybe even hitting the Kerch bridge or Sevastopol) &amp;/ a marked increase in the number and type of weapons sent to Ukraine, certainly including anti-aircraft or anti-missile systems, and possibly even the ATACMS Ukraine have been asking for recently.Oh, and I would expect air defence to be beefed up in Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Which Tyler, post: 1107977, member: 73592"] [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/16/poland-missile-unlikely-to-have-been-fired-from-russia-biden-says[/URL] Which is why we wait on the evidence, rather than going off half-cock. First it needs to be clarified whether these were Russian missiles or Ukrainian - from what I can tell it's still in doubt (as in, I'm seeing people and analysts I trust in stringent disagreement with each other). If Russian, it needs to be clarified if it was accidental, "accidental" or deliberate. If Russian then there's a good chance that article 4 will be triggered; but highly unlikely article 5 (that would, presumably, require deliberate and rather blatant targetting of Poland by Russia - even then, I'm not convinced A5 would be triggered over 2 dead people). The most likely responses (if Russian) seem to me, that NATO send a couple of cruise missiles at Russian targets deep in occupied Ukraine (maybe even hitting the Kerch bridge or Sevastopol) &/ a marked increase in the number and type of weapons sent to Ukraine, certainly including anti-aircraft or anti-missile systems, and possibly even the ATACMS Ukraine have been asking for recently. Oh, and I would expect air defence to be beefed up in Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc [/QUOTE]

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