[2019 Super Rugby] Round 14 (17 & 18 May 2019)

[petite]

wow killer game for the jags
barret out too costry. n 10 wasnt able to cope with the pressure. imo many of the mistakes hurricanes made where out of preasure.
thy did a bunch of unforced errors but so did the jags.
the key for the game was the line out they where able to totally mess thir line out. they stole key balls lavanini petti and ortega had great games there. i counted like 3 clean line out balls for them the rest where stolen or slowed down, because of the kicking nature of the game the lineout was way more relevant than the scrum
that also improved, we managed our own ball. did give away a few pens but was enough. kramer added much needed stamina in the final moments.
and cubelli was the mvp.
well done blues too the sa conference is on fire

 

[petite]

question about barret s penalty try
ive watched again and clearly see ther jbarret knocks the ball backwards that means its not knock on. i suppose its penalty anyway, but cant be deliverate knock on
some one knows what did the ref call?

 

[Umaga's Witness]

well done Jaguares , a dominant performance.
Their play at the ruck was key for me. Getting their first man or two or three there very quickly, getting in low or straight to ground to prevent clean out, then getting to their feet to play the ball. Also driving through to slow the ball when the canes got on the front foot. They were smart at the rucks.

The canes have been dumb at the rucks at times this year. Including this game. Often Savea is enough to compensate for this. In this game he had no presence at ruck time, maybe because he was told by coaches or thought himself that he needed to play a different role on account of playing number 8 in this game. I think part of the canes problem st times at ruck time this year has been that they are overcoached and don't adapt. Until half time when their coach tells them too. They were slightly more effective in the second half but only in body position, not in numbers, and the Jaguares were simply too good.

Asafo aumua. Some of his tackles and runs were amazing. Ridiculous potential. But overall a massive liability. He was the most influential player in this game by a very long way, because of his line out throwing. It was awful. There were the obvious ones off target, but some others were still off, enough to make it easier for the opposition to steal. And they did.

The Jaguares defence for the most part was brilliant. The canes second half try was brilliant. It had to be, such was the Jaguares defence. The try required raw power from 4 of the most freakishly powerful runners in the comp (aumua, Savea, lam, Laumape)as well as extreme accuracy from Savea and Perenara. That was the only way through.

Perhaps Both teams came with the wrong sized sprigs. It was slippery underfoot. The amount of kicks that went awry from many players and both teams suggested to me they didn't have their normal rhythm because they had to be careful with their plant foot.

I really enjoyed the game despite being a canes supporter. I admired the Jaguares at the rucks and on defence, and the canes two tries were amazing.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

question about barret s penalty try
ive watched again and clearly see ther jbarret knocks the ball backwards that means its not knock on. i suppose its penalty anyway, but cant be deliverate knock on
some one knows what did the ref call?

Law 9.7 b
A player must not
Intentionally knock, place, push or throw the ball with arm or hand from the playing area.

Im not sure it should have been a penalty try though. It is consistent with how penalty tries are generally ruled, but I'm not sure it's in alignment with the law. But there is a subjective aspect, so it could just be the ref saw it differently.

What I'm taking about is that the rule says the try had to have been probable were it not for the offending action. To me Jordie could have grounded the ball instead of hitting out of play. But often these things are reffed in a way that assumes the offending player simply wasn't there- I.e if it was probable the try would have been scored had the offending player not been in the position to offend, rather than had they not offended.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Yea nobody is going to tell me antything about Super rugby that is dying. This year we have seen some of the most unpredictable results, no one knows what going to happen everyone is just guessing at this point. I love it how the so called pundits gets in wrong every week. The on field product in Super Rugby is there and its thriving. They just have to sort out the comercial and time zone issues and no other club competition will have anything on this comp.

So far im zero from two for the weekend with my predictions and im not even mad.

Yeah it's the first year there have been 14 teams so close, from 2nd to 15th. It's both because of the teams at the bottom getting better and the teams at the top getting worse but it makes for a great competition.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

question about barret s penalty try
ive watched again and clearly see ther jbarret knocks the ball backwards that means its not knock on. i suppose its penalty anyway, but cant be deliverate knock on
some one knows what did the ref call?

You cannot purposely throw the ball out of the playing enclosure with your hands/arms. That's a penalty. Used to be law 10.2c but i'm pretty sure it's changed and it's under another number now.
I remeber because it cost la rochelle a game a couple of years ago.



Sonny Bill Williams did something similar not that long ago against france

 

[del boy]

Law 9.7 b
A player must not
Intentionally knock, place, push or throw the ball with arm or hand from the playing area.

Im not sure it should have been a penalty try though. It is consistent with how penalty tries are generally ruled, but I'm not sure it's in alignment with the law. But there is a subjective aspect, so it could just be the ref saw it differently.

What I'm taking about is that the rule says the try had to have been probable were it not for the offending action. To me Jordie could have grounded the ball instead of hitting out of play. But often these things are reffed in a way that assumes the offending player simply wasn't there- I.e if it was probable the try would have been scored had the offending player not been in the position to offend, rather than had they not offended.

This video provides the best explanation of the penalty try ruling

In short you remove the offending player from the picture & work out if the try would have been probably scored

 

[del boy]

Wow, what a result. I'll take it

The good:
-The Scrum. I thought we would give penalty after penalty. Wwe held our ground which, given our recent history, is a huge improvement.
-for 60 minutes, our defence. When we are focused we can defend very, very well, even against the best
-Scrappy attack. We can create opportunities from pretty much nothing. We need to exploit that more.
-Our centres. They are the most underrated players in the entire competition. The rush very well, hardly miss a tackle and cover when others miss theirs. They won't break the line often but you give them an inch and they will make you pay for it.


The bad:
- For 20 minutes, our defense was nothing short of pathetic, specially during the first 15 min.
- Boffelli. He had a shocker of a game. Kicked bad, defended "meh" and lost half the balls in hand he had.
- Sometimes we are very stupid at decision making. They had 1 guy in the sin bin and we kept kicking the ball away.


The really, really bad:
- receiving kickoffs. We are the worst at this and that is simply unacceptable.

I think we deserved to win, but i also think Barrett cost them the game. His PT was a game changer. It cost them 14 points, tired their players and gave us confidence and momentum.

Still, i'll take it.

I was counting 2 out of 4 wins in this tour so i'm rather optimistic. It'll come down to the game vs the sharks. That's, again, our must win battle.

I agree with this analysis mostly especially on the Centres

Moroni is a very underrated player Verstaile utility back & is excellent over the ball

de la Fuente was spectacular as well

Scrums was still poor: 2 scrum penalties is bad against a team with weak Tight 5 forwards

Defence after 1st 10 mins excellent

Hurricanes came out strong early in 2nd half & scored an excellent try

But when the game was on the line Jaguares only conceded 13 points

You'll win 99% of games with such an excellent display on defence

Kickoffs were disgusting complete clown show

IMO Barrett would NOT have made a difference

Hurricanes were disjointed and sloppy

Their Tight 5 forwards are rubbish as Crusaders & Jaguares have shown in a ruthless manner

They've been lucky to win 3-4 games they've should have lost

don;t think Sharks game is vital TBH

I expect Jaguares to win vs Waratahs, Reds & Sunwolves

That's 10 wins and the Sharks can only win 9 games maximum

Total wins is the 1st tiebreaker over teams with the same number of points

 

[del boy]

well done Jaguares , a dominant performance.
Their play at the ruck was key for me. Getting their first man or two or three there very quickly, getting in low or straight to ground to prevent clean out, then getting to their feet to play the ball. Also driving through to slow the ball when the canes got on the front foot. They were smart at the rucks.



Asafo aumua. Some of his tackles and runs were amazing. Ridiculous potential. But overall a massive liability. He was the most influential player in this game by a very long way, because of his line out throwing. It was awful. There were the obvious ones off target, but some others were still off, enough to make it easier for the opposition to steal. And they did.

I really enjoyed the game despite being a canes supporter. I admired the Jaguares at the rucks and on defence, and the canes two tries were amazing.

well done Jaguares , a dominant performance.
Their play at the ruck was key for me. Getting their first man or two or three there very quickly, getting in low or straight to ground to prevent clean out, then getting to their feet to play the ball. Also driving through to slow the ball when the canes got on the front foot. They were smart at the rucks.

The canes have been dumb at the rucks at times this year. Including this game. Often Savea is enough to compensate for this. In this game he had no presence at ruck time, maybe because he was told by coaches or thought himself that he needed to play a different role on account of playing number 8 in this game. I think part of the canes problem st times at ruck time this year has been that they are overcoached and don't adapt. Until half time when their coach tells them too. They were slightly more effective in the second half but only in body position, not in numbers, and the Jaguares were simply too good.

Asafo aumua. Some of his tackles and runs were amazing. Ridiculous potential. But overall a massive liability. He was the most influential player in this game by a very long way, because of his line out throwing. It was awful. There were the obvious ones off target, but some others were still off, enough to make it easier for the opposition to steal. And they did.


Jaguares were much the more physical side

Hurricanes to use a boxing metaphor "punched in the mouth" with a couple of exception you mentioned above

I said last week they were flat track bullies

Blueprint to beating Canes is quite simple: Kick long Tackle Hard and watch them make mistakes and implode

Lineout was awful Aumua whilst great in the loose had a shocker with his darts

In the end the Hurricanes were well beaten and the scoreline flattered them big time

 

[del boy]

question about barret s penalty try
ive watched again and clearly see ther jbarret knocks the ball backwards that means its not knock on. i suppose its penalty anyway, but cant be deliverate knock on
some one knows what did the ref call?

 

[Umaga's Witness]

You cannot purposely throw the ball out of the playing enclosure with your hands/arms. That's a penalty. Used to be law 10.2c but i'm pretty sure it's changed and it's under another number now.
I remeber because it cost la rochelle a game a couple of years ago.



Sonny Bill Williams did something similar not that long ago against france

Wow that would suck to be a La Rochelle fan or that fullback. That's the craziest end to a game I've seen

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Thanks for this video as it confirms what i thought in terms of how referees are interpreting the penalty try law. Exactly as you said, and Steve Walsh said in the video, they take the offending player completely out of the picture.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

I agree with this analysis mostly especially on the Centres

Moroni is a very underrated player Verstaile utility back & is excellent over the ball

de la Fuente was spectacular as well

Scrums was still poor: 2 scrum penalties is bad against a team with weak Tight 5 forwards

Defence after 1st 10 mins excellent

Hurricanes came out strong early in 2nd half & scored an excellent try

But when the game was on the line Jaguares only conceded 13 points

You'll win 99% of games with such an excellent display on defence

Kickoffs were disgusting complete clown show

IMO Barrett would NOT have made a difference

Hurricanes were disjointed and sloppy

Their Tight 5 forwards are rubbish as Crusaders & Jaguares have shown in a ruthless manner

They've been lucky to win 3-4 games they've should have lost

don;t think Sharks game is vital TBH

I expect Jaguares to win vs Waratahs, Reds & Sunwolves

That's 10 wins and the Sharks can only win 9 games maximum

Total wins is the 1st tiebreaker over teams with the same number of points

I agree the hurricanes standings makes them look better than they really are. In saying that it's not as if there are Any teams that would look deserving of a second place on points. I mean the second best team in recent years has been light years better than whoever is the second best team this year.

 

[unrated]

I agree with this analysis mostly especially on the Centres

Moroni is a very underrated player Verstaile utility back & is excellent over the ball

de la Fuente was spectacular as well

Scrums was still poor: 2 scrum penalties is bad against a team with weak Tight 5 forwards

Defence after 1st 10 mins excellent

Hurricanes came out strong early in 2nd half & scored an excellent try

But when the game was on the line Jaguares only conceded 13 points

You'll win 99% of games with such an excellent display on defence

Kickoffs were disgusting complete clown show

IMO Barrett would NOT have made a difference

Hurricanes were disjointed and sloppy

Their Tight 5 forwards are rubbish as Crusaders & Jaguares have shown in a ruthless manner

They've been lucky to win 3-4 games they've should have lost

don;t think Sharks game is vital TBH

I expect Jaguares to win vs Waratahs, Reds & Sunwolves

That's 10 wins and the Sharks can only win 9 games maximum

Total wins is the 1st tiebreaker over teams with the same number of points

I really don't understand how you came to this conclusion. In my mind if all teams win their remaining games then the Bulls would end first. However the bulls have a few tough fixtures coming up. So if we write off the Bulls and only look at the Sharks and Jags and both win their remaining games then the match between the Sharks and Jaguares will for the second year in a row be decisive.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

In my mind if all teams win their remaining games then the Bulls would end first.

Not really. Assuming neither get bonus points (for simplicity) in the coming games, it'd come down to point difference. They have a +13 point difference on us as of today but have a look at the schedule.

Schedules are
Bulls
vs Brumbies
vs Blues
vs Landers
vs Lions

Jaguares
vs Reds
vs Tahs
vs Sharks
vs Sunwolves

Sharks
vs Lions
vs Canes
vs Jaguares
vs Stormers

Below a fair amount of speculation...
We have no NZ opposition left, our critical game (sharks) is at home, and our last game is at home against the sunwovles, which could potentially decide the conference due to point difference and/or bonus point.

I am reasonably comfortable assuming we will win 2 out of the 4 games we have left. My take is that the bulls could win 3 at best and lose all at worst. Sharks, unpredictable as they are could win all or lose all.

And regarding the scenario u mentioned (rule out the bulls, sharks win all, jags win 3 out of 4), it will come down to bonus points (if we tie in points we'll have more wins).

 

[petite]

thanks for the explanation! it's clear.

that was folauless victory for the thas!

 

[petite]

I agree with this analysis mostly especially on the Centres

Moroni is a very underrated player Verstaile utility back & is excellent over the ball

de la Fuente was spectacular as well

Scrums was still poor: 2 scrum penalties is bad against a team with weak Tight 5 forwards

Defence after 1st 10 mins excellent

Hurricanes came out strong early in 2nd half & scored an excellent try

But when the game was on the line Jaguares only conceded 13 points

You'll win 99% of games with such an excellent display on defence

Kickoffs were disgusting complete clown show

IMO Barrett would NOT have made a difference

Hurricanes were disjointed and sloppy

Their Tight 5 forwards are rubbish as Crusaders & Jaguares have shown in a ruthless manner

They've been lucky to win 3-4 games they've should have lost

don;t think Sharks game is vital TBH

I expect Jaguares to win vs Waratahs, Reds & Sunwolves

That's 10 wins and the Sharks can only win 9 games maximum

Total wins is the 1st tiebreaker over teams with the same number of points

u don't think that the line had anything to do with the canes loosing. canes hooker had a bad day and jags fed from it.
Marshall made key mistakes in key moments barret could have made the a difference here.
it was a tight game after all. and moroni''s try was more out of luck and barret 's stupidity. remember that the ball first slips ridiculously from other player before barret knocks it out.
agree about our centres Bonilla had a good game too.

 

[del boy]

I really don't understand how you came to this conclusion. In my mind if all teams win their remaining games then the Bulls would end first. However the bulls have a few tough fixtures coming up. So if we write off the Bulls and only look at the Sharks and Jags and both win their remaining games then the match between the Sharks and Jaguares will for the second year in a row be decisive.

Sharks would have expected both Jaguares & Bulls to lose their games this weekend whilst they were on a bye

Bulls have the hardest schedule as they have to play best AUS side fresh off a bye & two NZ sides as well That'll be 1/3 wins

Sharks host Lions which should be a win but the last 3 games they all go in as underdogs

Sharks have to win all their last remaining 4 games to have any chances of winning SA conference which IMO won';t happen

Hence they're in a fight to get a playoff spot along with Lions Stormers Rebels and Waratahs

 

[del boy]

u don't think that the line had anything to do with the canes loosing. canes hooker had a bad day and jags fed from it.
Marshall made key mistakes in key moments barret could have made the a difference here.
it was a tight game after all. and moroni''s try was more out of luck and barret 's stupidity. remember that the ball first slips ridiculously from other player before barret knocks it out.
agree about our centres Bonilla had a good game too.

For sure Lavaninni & Petti were excellent in their lineout defence

Barrett would have some moments of excellent play but I think you overetsimate his impact

Hurricanes struggle to accurate with their pack which mostly comes form Jaguares line speed in defence

Sure tackles were missed but Canes rarely had time and space to make good decisions with ease

Cubelli and Bonilla were very good as well Bonilla kicking to touch from penalises is fantastic

He regularly punishes opponents by kicking the ball 50 metres on the angle

Led directly to Creavy try in 1st half Ronan O'Gara made this point as well in a podcast in NZ - 1014 show

Regarding J Barrett sure there was an element of luck but at least Jaguares were going for a try scoring opportunity

Bouncing ball from a grubber kick is hard to deal & Barrett has mistakes in him, he can be reckless in protecting the pill

 

[DeAllendeCantPass]

Woohoo Lions who would've expected that result