I imagine the AB's side will be very predictable (barring injuries). The selects will almost certainly pick Dagg at fullback and shift Smith back to the wing. Probably the most difficult decisions will be on the bench, with the selectors having to choose between Cane and Messam for the reserve loose-forward spot, Perenara and Kerr-Barlow for back-up halfback, and Fekitoa, Jane, and Piutau for outside back cover.
As much as I would love to see the Wallabies win - if I were to be forced into to puting $50K on the match - I would take the All Blacks by less than 5 points. Again, I think set piece will be the difference and our inexperienced tight 5 will be where the All Blacks are able to take advantage.
My heart says Wallabies by 3. I really do think Australia will beat the All Blacks this RC so hopefully my gut is right as well be next weekend!
I'm liking the look of both squads so far and am now convinced the All Blacks are more dangerous without Carter. I'd start Messam over Kaino and Smith over Dagg. The rest of the team picks itself.
Based on form over the last few years I agree the AB's are probably more dangerous without Carter. Cruden can tear any team apart on his day, and Barrett is a real weapon on the bench. When Carter is out we do miss his world class defense, experience, and quality goal-kicking (though his kicking hasn't been great this season...), but we are probably more dangerous with ball in hand.....
I imagine Kaino will start every key match for the AB's leading up to (and during) the next RWC barring injury. Messam did a very good job at 6 last season, but Kaino is at a different level altogether. When Kaino is on form (as he is now) he is (by some margin) the best 6 in the world IMO.
As for the Wallabies, obviously certain players are unavailable (Moore, TPN, Speight and O'Conner) but I would absolutely start Beale and AAC. There is another thread going into detail with the Brumbies v Waratahs center combinations and ultimately both options are good but I do feel AAC is wasted on the wing. My only real controversial selection would be to start Ben McCalman over Fardy. I really don't know why Fardy is an automatic starter and see him as one of the most overrated players in rugby today. He's good but certainly not great. His workrate is vastly overrated - his stats for the French series; 21 run meters, 7 tackles and a turnover over 3 games! Big Ben would add a tonne of size to the team another very effective ball runner.
I think it would be a big mistake to start Beale at 12 against the AB's. He would certainly offer the Wallabies more on attack, but he is a weak defender (in what it is a vital defensive position), which I'm sure the AB's (and other sides) would be able to exploit that. He could be hidden on the wing (as the Waratahs do), but even then he can be exposed. Personally I think he is best used at this stage as an impact sub, though I understand why people would consider starting him. Personally I would start AAC at centre (as like you I feel he is somewhat wasted on the wing), but I don't think that will happen until Speight becomes available.
Fardy is an interesting one at 6, and like you I would consider starting McCalman there. I actually think Fardy does a pretty important job for the Wallabies, but I think McCalman could do a good job too. The advantage with Fardy is that he is a big abrasive guy (bigger than McCalman), is an excellent lineout option (he has also played a lot at lock), and his ability to force turnovers at the breakdown is a big asset. He is only an average ball runner though, and he does get penalized a lot (mainly at the breakdown). McCalman offers quite a bit more with ball in hand, concedes a lot less penalties, but isn't as good in the lineout (though is still a good option), and doesn't have the ability to force turnovers that Fardy has. Personally I feel McCalman is the better 6 of the two (even though he plays mainly at 8), but Fardy is currently the better fit for this Aussie side (especially if they are going to use Skelton as an impact sub, as they need their best jumpers available if one of their locks isn't used at lineout time...). McCalman is sure to see plenty at time at 8 this season when Palu inevitably breaks down....
