Quite looking forward to this match. Probably because there was no rugby on Friday night so I'm starting to get withdrawal symptoms
I'm picking it will be quite a close match. Both sides have some clear strengths, but both have some obvious weaknesses too. The scrum battle will be interesting. Statistically the Brumbies have the worst scrum in the competition, but they have two very good props (at this level), and it wouldn't surprise me if they had an edge in this area. The Chiefs scrum has been a weakness over recent weeks and I do think Jamie MackIntosh is largely at fault. I would compare him to a large marshmallow at scrum time, but I think a Jamie Mackintosh sized marshmallow would actually be stronger in the scrum. MackIntosh is pretty handy around the park but I can't work out why the Chiefs continue to start him. I'm not a massive fan of Manu but he is solid around the park and the scrum noticeably improves the moment he has came on in recent weeks (even though he isn't really a noted scrummager). The Chiefs do have a clear edge at hooker though. Though Schwalger is past his best he still does his core jobs well, and Harris offers a bit from the bench. The Brumbies are missing their 1st and 2nd choice hookers, and I haven't been impressed by Mann-Rea, and his replacement (Murphy) can't throw the ball in straight to save himself (not surprising considering he is actually a prop!).
I think the Chiefs have and edge in the 2nd row. Retallick is world class, while Fitzgerald has developed into a good lock at this level too. Sam Carter is quality, but Power is hardly a standout. The loose-forwards are pretty evenly matched in my opinion. I rate both Mowen and Fardy, but Butler is a bit anonymous at this level. Messam has really stepped up in recent weeks, Latimer always gives 100%, and Squire has started to show some really good signs over the last few weeks too (largely due to getting a consistent run of games at 8).
The halves battle may be one of the key match-ups. White has been in great form all season, and Toomua was a real standout last weekend. Kerr-Barlow looks to be hitting form for the Chiefs though, Pulu is a real weapon from the bench, and Cruden is starting to look close to his best. Though I do rate the Brumbies halves duo I feel the Chiefs have an edge here - largely due to the fact that Cruden is the best 10 in the world when on song (which is the main reason I'm picking them to win). As Conrad Smith mentions the Brumbies do have the edge in the midfield, with Lealiifano and Kuridrani both playing well (not to mention the option of bringing in McCabe off the bench). In contrast Aki has been very quiet this season, while Nanai-Williams is wasted at centre.....
I feel the Brumbies have the advantage in the back 3 too, though it does depend how Mogg plays. When he is on form he is brilliant - he's got phenomenal pace and a booming punt - but he is prone to having a shocker under pressure. Speight was on fire last weekend, Coleman offers an intriguing play-making option out wide (ala James O'Connor), and Tomane could a real weapon when injected late in the match. The Chiefs back three in contrast aren't nearly as exciting. Tikoirotimu has some pace, hits hard on defense, and does everything at full speed but isn't really a major linebreaking threat. Lowe is a big guy with some pace (and a big punt) but is a rookie at this level, and still prone to the odd error. Sweeney is a solid utility to does well cutting back against the traffic but doesn't have a lot of pace and I can't remember the last time he played at fullback....
One thing that could be critical this match is goal-kicking, and is an area where the Chiefs have an edge. Not because Cruden's kicking is good either - he's actually had a pretty poor year with the boot so far (36/53 - 68%) - but rather because Leallifano's kicking has been shocking poor since his return (and they continue to persist with him). Since his return from injury Lealiifano has kicked 21/43 (49%), which is shocking by anyone's standards, let alone a class goal-kicker like Lealiifano! I can see why they are persisting with him as we know he can be a quality goal-kicker, but I can't help feeling they should go back to Nic White who kicked a very respectable 39/53 (74%) in Lealiifano's absence.
Overall I'm picking it to be a tight match, but I feel Chiefs will win in the end by 5-10 points.
