A Political Thread pt. 2

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Feel free to educate me - I can't see anything wrong with my statement.

The closest is that the definition of "family" has been expanded - but that's only for longer stays, not the whether or not. The length of that visa has been increased as well - but that's just the duration, not the whether or not.
Still need to go through the visa application process, still subject to acceptance or rejection.

Can be sponsored by a charity, business or family.

I'd rather it went further regardless

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Sky News team's harrowing account of their violent ambush in Ukraine this week

On Monday, near Kyiv, chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay and his team were attacked. Camera operator Richie Mockler took two rounds to his body armour, Stuart was wounded. Their experience illustrates the scale of the mayhem and violence as Russia's invasion enters a new and deadlier phase.

news.sky.com

 

[Which Tyler]

Can be sponsored by a charity, business or family.

I'd rather it went further regardless

Any links please?
Everything I can see says that that's a future intention, not currently enacted. Which doesn't mean that it isn't the case, just that I'm not finding it.
Best I can find on gov.uk uses the future tense.

Even if enacted, it still requires finding a sponsor, and is still frank bad policy.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Any links please?
Everything I can see says that that's a future intention, not currently enacted. Which doesn't mean that it isn't the case, just that I'm not finding it.
Best I can find on gov.uk uses the future tense.

Even if enacted, it still requires finding a sponsor, and is still frank bad policy.

Apologies yeah my mistake in thinking its started already.

it's not up and running yet but the humanitarian sponsorship partnership will allow uncapped numbers of refugees provided they have a sponsor (business, individual, or local authority) . Would imagine it'll come in in practice next week (oh the joys of beurocracy).

I'm happy with it being uncapped - it allows local authorities to do as much as they physically can (which I think is the best way to do this across the board), but imagine that means a lot of systems have to be in place beforehand which is part of the reason for the delay.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Trump’s private schedule reveals no plans for him to join 6 January march

Ex-president said he would join crowd to US Capitol but his schedule indicates he deliberately lied to his supporters

www.theguardian.com

I thought it was pretty clear, but now there’s evidence. Crazy thing is those who marched on the Capitol choose to ignore this. He left them out to dry.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Trump’s private schedule reveals no plans for him to join 6 January march

Ex-president said he would join crowd to US Capitol but his schedule indicates he deliberately lied to his supporters

www.theguardian.com

I thought it was pretty clear, but now there’s evidence. Crazy thing is those who marched on the Capitol choose to ignore this. He left them out to dry.

The mental qanon ones turned on him pretty quick afterwards tbf

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The mental qanon ones turned on him pretty quick afterwards tbf

Maybe, don’t know about that. I personally think most Trump supporters and certainly those who marched on the Capitol that day just believe what they want to - boils down to them identity at the end of the day. Trump encouraged them by virtue of his position.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Maybe, don’t know about that. I personally think most Trump supporters and certainly those who marched on the Capitol that day just believe what they want to - boils down to them identity at the end of the day. Trump encouraged them by virtue of his position.

Fair - the high profile ones (the horn head guy for example) were mostly the qanon lot that think Hilary is a lizard version of Epstien or smth.

Think they decided after trump didn't command the military to take over that he was in bed with the lizard people

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The right wing media, notably Tucker Carlson, still have no shame when it comes to Putin. Yeh it was Kamala’s fault.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

The right wing media, notably Tucker Carlson, still have no shame when it comes to Putin. Yeh it was Kamala’s fault.

Fox news, and particularly Carlson, are the biggest bunch of shameless, hypocritical liars on the planet. The staggering thing is the dribblers who watch that just lap it all up. He could them the sky is green one day and they would all chant the sky is green. The next day he could say it was red, claim he never said it was green and those same dribblers would just repeat that and not see the contradiction at all.

 

[Amiga500]

Claps are cheap.

"Currently we send £350 million a week to the EU. Lets fund our NHS with a few claps on a Thursday night instead."

(or something like that.)

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Apparently Ukrainian farmers are nicking Russian military hardware.

 

[Amiga500]

This in a nutshell is what I am criticising as the cheerleaders in UK and US. From day one it has struck me as egging on Ukraine to suffer horribly in a futile defence while in a practical sense we offer no contribution that gives Ukraine hope of offensive gains (which, you know, are kind of a requirement of military victory).

TBH, I think the Ukrainians are, if not clearly winning, clearly on the right road to a victory.
I prob need to explain that - the Ukrainian standing army was obviously never going to be able to hold off the 100k+ troops at the borders and keep them totally off Ukrainian territory - particularly when they went through Belarus as well.
So, compare where we are today to where the initial projections were for how it'd be at day 10.

The Russians are miles behind their schedules and their logistics are simply lightyears away from the levels they need.

Put the two together and they're f*ked.


- They cannot stop copious amounts of material flowing across the Polish border.
- They haven't yet been able to cut off Eastern Ukraine from the West.
- Their logistical train across unfriendly territory is, right now, as short as it'll ever be. Yet by many accounts they're already struggling to fuel their armour, Whats it going to be like if they have to extend it another 400 miles West?

- As spring comes in and ground thaws, they'll be even more road restricted and thus vulnerable to infantry/militia across the countryside.


Right now, I really struggle to see a route to the Russians even reaching the Polish border, never mind actually quelling the insurgency.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

‘Quite wrong’: David Miliband singles out UK’s visa policy on Ukrainian refugees

Former UK foreign secretary calls on European countries to step up and agree a refugee resettlement framework

www.theguardian.com

Apparently £85m has been raised by the DEC, but yes much more can be done including obligations to take in refugees.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

China realistically are not going to do anything with Taiwan, they will increase their fishing and ocean borders but they have been doing that **** for decades now the chinese fishing fleet get away with so much already.
But Taiwan is a different fish than Ukraine and China is a different beast to Russia. I feel that China will have seen the reaction to Ukraine and prob cooled down on any invasion, they will obviously keep pulling it towards them politically much like Russia was doing before all this. But looking at Chinas reaction to the Ukrainian invasion and how they abstained from voting in the recent UN stuff suggests to me they are not that confident in backing russia all out for a reason.

And let's not forget China still has issues with another big Russian ally in India in terms of Borders.

But if Taiwan gets invaded **** will hit the fan as it's basically the world supplier of superconductors.

also China has set it's lowest growth target for a reason

Im just glad I got my ps5 and new bike now. If Taiwan gets attacked hello inflation.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

TBH, I think the Ukrainians are, if not clearly winning, clearly on the right road to a victory. I prob need to explain that - the Ukrainian standing army was obviously never going to be able to hold off the 100k+ troops at the borders and keep them totally off Ukrainian territory - particularly when they went through Belarus as well. So, compare where we are today to where the initial projections were for how it'd be at day 10. The Russians are miles behind their schedules and their logistics are simply lightyears away from the levels they need. Put the two together and they're f*ked. - They cannot stop copious amounts of material flowing across the Polish border. - They haven't yet been able to cut off Eastern Ukraine from the West. - Their logistical train across unfriendly territory is, right now, as short as it'll ever be. Yet by many accounts they're already struggling to fuel their armour, Whats it going to be like if they have to extend it another 400 miles West? - As spring comes in and ground thaws, they'll be even more road restricted and thus vulnerable to infantry/militia across the countryside. Right now, I really struggle to see a route to the Russians even reaching the Polish border, never mind actually quelling the insurgency.

I hope more than anything that your interpretation is correct but I'm slightly bemused by the narrative from UK and US media that because Russia didn't take Kyiv or Kharkiv inside a week they are somehow struggling. If your fronts make progress then the war is going well. Time is only a factor if a foe is mobilising or gathering strength, or you have a narrow window of opportunity due to weather conditions or limited supplies.

They have linked the Crimean front to Donbas forces (a key objective), they are close to cutting off Odessa (third largest city, in SW) from the rest of Ukraine, taking a significant proportion of Ukraine out of the game. The Kharkiv front has linked up with Kyiv and is close to linking up with the Donbas front.

They can have the world's largest car park north of Kyiv and it is almost literally untouched due to a lack of Ukrainian offensive weapon, because these are running out and are not being replenished by allies.

I do sense there is incompetence and/or reluctance amongst some of the Russian ranks, with suggestions even much of the Russian cabinet were unclear of the war plan. But disobedience will be very bad for your health at all levels from grunt to cabinet, so on we go until the end.

I think we will see very rapid progress from Russia now, with over 75% of Ukrainian territory claimed by April (started with around 5-7%, now around 20%) and the remainder to follow by May. Only the Carpathian mountains in the north west offer any sort of shelter for guerilla activity and Putin might not even bother to claim them in the short term. Weather is a factor and tragically the next week is forcast to be the coldest since at least February.

 

[Deleted member 53362]

TBH, I think the Ukrainians are, if not clearly winning, clearly on the right road to a victory.
I prob need to explain that - the Ukrainian standing army was obviously never going to be able to hold off the 100k+ troops at the borders and keep them totally off Ukrainian territory - particularly when they went through Belarus as well.
So, compare where we are today to where the initial projections were for how it'd be at day 10.

The Russians are miles behind their schedules and their logistics are simply lightyears away from the levels they need.

Put the two together and they're f*ked.


- They cannot stop copious amounts of material flowing across the Polish border.
- They haven't yet been able to cut off Eastern Ukraine from the West.
- Their logistical train across unfriendly territory is, right now, as short as it'll ever be. Yet by many accounts they're already struggling to fuel their armour, Whats it going to be like if they have to extend it another 400 miles West?

- As spring comes in and ground thaws, they'll be even more road restricted and thus vulnerable to infantry/militia across the countryside.


Right now, I really struggle to see a route to the Russians even reaching the Polish border, never mind actually quelling the insurgency.

Sorry that's wishful thinking kid.

The Russians will win the initial war and are looking more and more likely too. Some rain/snow will delay them but they should have the initial operation wrapped up by May. It's what happens after that will really decide things.

 

[Amiga500]

I guess we'll see in due course fellas, but I think they've completely fuked their fuel calcs.... and I don't know if they can easily recover from that.

Not like they can head down to the local BP and fill up a few jerry cans.

Maybe if they can start shipping into one of the ports then distribute from there, they can largely carry their attack from the south. But the northern front looks like its by and by large stalled out.

 

[Deleted member 53362]

I guess we'll see in due course fellas, but I think they've completely fuked their fuel calcs.... and I don't know if they can easily recover from that.

Not like they can head down to the local BP and fill up a few jerry cans.

Maybe if they can start shipping into one of the ports then distribute from there, they can largely carry their attack from the south. But the northern front looks like its by and by large stalled out.

It hasn't, I wrote an answer earlier about the famous convoy, they are building up for an envoplment. There are Russian spearheads moving from the south and east. They are looking to surround Kyiv and reduce it, at the moment the Russian forward units are keeping the Ukrainian army pinned into fighting them just north of Kyiv so they cannot interfere with the build on up.

The Ukrainian army have been doing brilliantly but we are not 2 weeks into the campaign yet and although the Russians proper cocked things up at the start I see a more systematic, Soviet type of campaign going forward.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I guess we'll see in due course fellas, but I think they've completely fuked their fuel calcs.... and I don't know if they can easily recover from that.

Not like they can head down to the local BP and fill up a few jerry cans.

Maybe if they can start shipping into one of the ports then distribute from there, they can largely carry their attack from the south. But the northern front looks like its by and by large stalled out.

It really isn't a question of if Russia win but when and how damaging it will be. Ukraine has not been able to recover any ground anywhere and there is nothing at all preventing the Russians from refueling their tanks, the Russian supply lines are completely secure. Ultimately there is nowhere where the Ukrainians have succeeded in stopping or pushing back the Russians, only delaying them.